Việt Nam exported nearly 1.7 million tonnes of coffee in the first eight months, earning more than US$6 billion. VNA/VNS Photo

HÀ NỘI — Vietnamese coffee has favourable prospects for strong increases in both export volume and prices in the final months of the year, as low inventories, weather-related disruptions to global supply and higher product standards among importers provide favourable conditions, with the quality and reputation of Vietnamese coffee increasingly established.

According to the Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (Vicofa), Việt Nam exported nearly 1.7 million tonnes of coffee in the first eight months, earning more than US$6 billion. Export volume rose by over 10 per cent year on year, while export value fell by 11.2 per cent due to lower export prices.

The EU and the US continue to be the main export markets for Vietnamese coffee. Meanwhile, several Asian markets, particularly China, are emerging as new growth drivers for the industry.

Coffee prices are forecast to rise in the coming period, supported by several factors. Climate change and heavy rainfall have delayed harvesting in Brazil, while El Niño, along with heatwaves and drought forecast to affect Asia in late 2026 and 2027, could impact coffee production and supply. Low inventory levels are another factor supporting higher prices.

Notably, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will officially take effect on December 30, except for small and micro enterprises.

Vicofa said the regulation presents an opportunity for Vietnamese coffee to boost exports, particularly green coffee beans meeting EUDR requirements, amid the relatively low level of compliance among some other producing countries.

Currently, more than 30 per cent of Việt Nam's coffee-growing area has been certified under sustainable production schemes, providing an important foundation for meeting increasingly stringent standards in import markets.

Therefore, export growth in the coming period will depend significantly on the ability to meet sustainability standards, particularly the EUDR, alongside efforts to increase deep processing and improve product quality.

Opportunity to accelerate growth in volume and prices

Nguyễn Nam Hải, Chairman of Vicofa, said Vietnamese coffee has significant opportunities to accelerate growth in both export volume and prices in the final months of the year.

Currently, around 35-40 per cent of Việt Nam's coffee supply currently meets EUDR requirements. As a result, many buyers are focusing on purchasing EUDR-compliant Vietnamese coffee under contracts to be signed from October onwards. This could help increase export volume by 8-10 per cent. In particular, EUDR-compliant shipments are expected to fetch prices approximately $50 per tonne higher than conventional coffee, helping significantly boost export turnover.

According to Hải, global demand for deeply processed products is growing strongly. Such products are therefore also expected to become a key driver in helping the industry reach its target of $9 billion in coffee export turnover this year.

However, alongside factors supporting higher prices, Hải noted that the market is also facing developments that could push prices down. According to forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), coffee production in major producing countries is generally expected to increase in the 2026-2027 crop year compared with 2025-2026.

Global coffee supply is estimated at around 189 million bags, while consumption in major markets such as the US and Europe is expected to stand at only around 179 million bags, leaving a surplus of approximately 10 million bags. As more coffee enters the market, export prices are likely to come under downward pressure. — VNA/VNS