Professor Nguyễn Văn Phú, Research Director at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research. — VNA/VNS Photo Hữu Chiến

PARIS — The economic orientations outlined at the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Việt Nam mark a “major strategic shift” towards building a foundation for sustainable, high-quality growth of the country in the coming period, according to Professor Nguyễn Văn Phú, Research Director at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS).

According to Prof. Phú, the core of this shift lies in renewing the growth model - moving away from dependence on low-cost labour, resource exploitation, and volume-driven foreign direct investment (FDI), towards development powered by knowledge, high technology, innovation, and productivity. The private sector is identified as the central growth engine, alongside strong investment in education, science and technology, digital transformation, and a national innovation ecosystem.

He stressed that this transformation is crucial to helping Việt Nam avoid the middle-income or middle-growth trap, where growth stagnates at 6–7 per cent without qualitative breakthroughs. Without decisive productivity gains, he warned, Việt Nam would struggle to consolidate long-term development foundations despite recent achievements.

While Việt Nam has sustained growth of 7–8 per cent and recorded disbursed FDI of US$27.62 billion last year – the highest in five years – the economy remains heavily reliant on the FDI sector, which accounts for about 70 per cent of exports. Domestic enterprises continue to face constraints in capital, technology, and governance, while regional competitors such as India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia are aggressively attracting high-quality FDI into strategic sectors including semiconductors, electric vehicles, data centres, and the green economy.

In this context, Prof. Phú said the 14th National Party Congress should pursue a selective, upgrading development strategy. Key priorities are drawing in FDI with solid technology transfer and ties to the “Make in Vietnam” vision, speeding up institutional reforms to cut red tape, boost transparency, and make policies more predictable, and building up top domestic companies ready to compete regionally and globally. Focus should go to strategic sectors like semiconductors, AI, biotechnology, healthcare, the digital and green economies, and high-quality agriculture.

He also highlighted the importance of attracting non-FDI financial capital through the establishment of International Financial Centre (IFC) in HCM City and Đà Nẵng, under the “one centre, two destinations” model. HCM City will focus on banking, capital markets, and financial transactions, while Đà Nẵng will target fintech, start-ups, technology funds, and green finance. The centre is expected to attract $10–15 billion annually by 2030, though Việt Nam will face stiff competition from established hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong (China).

Overall, Prof. Phú assessed the Congress’s orientations as correct and timely, but stressed that success hinges on swift, consistent, and substantive implementation. Việt Nam is no longer a low-cost option and must now compete on institutional quality, innovation, and policy credibility. The year 2026 will be pivotal in determining whether the country can strengthen its role as a regional production and financial hub or risk prolonged stagnation.

On institutional reform, he welcomed the designation of the private sector as the “most important driving force” of the economy, stressing that genuine business confidence depends on substantive administrative reform, transparent procedures and fair access to land, credit, and resources. Strengthening protection of property and intellectual property rights, improving access to finance and promoting innovation, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises, are also essential.

Prof. Phú underscored the need to mobilise overseas Vietnamese resources. Beyond remittances estimated at $16 billion last year, overseas Vietnamese contribute valuable expertise, management experience and global networks. He called for a shift from “mobilisation” to “substantive engagement”, underpinned by transparent institutions, non-discriminatory investment rights, and targeted incentives for hi-tech and green projects.

If supported by rigorous implementation and independent oversight, he concluded, these orientations could help Việt Nam overcome the middle-income trap, strengthen its position in global value chains and enhance its role as a bridge linking Việt Nam with Europe in economy and knowledge by 2030. — VNA/VNS