Techcombank headquarters in Hà Nội. The bank was among the biggest players in the bond market in the first four months. — Photo thuonghieucongluan.com.vn

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s corporate bond market is diverging sharply in early 2026 as banks scale back issuance amid soaring funding costs while real estate developers return aggressively to the market to refinance debt and secure capital for projects.

The market looks very different from a year ago when banks were the dominant bond issuers.

According to data from the Vietnam Bond Market Association (VBMA), banks issuing bonds in April had to offer coupon rates as high as 8.9 per cent compared with roughly 5 per cent during the same period in 2025.

Among banks, the largest issuers in the first four months were Techcombank with VNĐ8 trillion worth of bonds, followed by HDBank at VNĐ4.7 trillion and BIDV at VNĐ3.3 trillion.

As yields climbed closer to lending rates, many banks shifted towards more flexible funding sources such as customer deposits, interbank borrowing and open market operations instead of relying heavily on bond issuance.

The change quickly reshaped the market.

Bank bonds, which accounted for all corporate bond issuance in the first quarter of last year, represented only around 30 per cent of total issuance in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, real estate firms expanded their share to about 60 per cent.

Đinh Quang Hinh, head of macroeconomics and market strategy at VNDirect, said average yields on privately placed bank bonds reached 8.5 per cent in April, reflecting mounting liquidity pressure and rising capital costs across the banking sector.

At the same time, average lending rates at domestic commercial banks rose to 7.4–9.7 per cent in March, according to the State Bank of Vietnam.

Analysts at FiinGroup said the shrinking gap between bond yields and lending rates had reduced the attractiveness of bond issuance for banks, even as lenders continued to face strong demand for medium- and long-term capital.

While banks turned cautious, developers accelerated fundraising activity as tighter credit conditions pushed them towards capital markets.

Data from VBMA and MB Securities JSC (MBS) showed real estate companies issued around VNĐ30.4 trillion (US$1.2 billion) worth of bonds in April, accounting for nearly 59 per cent of total issuance and marking the highest monthly level in six months.

Since the beginning of the year, the property sector has raised VNĐ54.4 trillion through bond sales, up 278 per cent year-on-year and equivalent to more than half of the domestic corporate bond market.

Average issuance yields stood at 8.7 per cent with tenors averaging 4.3 years.

Vinhomes Smart City in Hà Nội. — Photo courtesy of the company

Major issuers included Vingroup, which sold VNĐ9.2 trillion worth of five-year bonds, and Vinhomes, which issued VNĐ6 trillion in 30-month bonds carrying yields of 12.5 per cent.

Vingroup also completed a $350 million international bond issuance with a five-year tenor, underscoring growing demand among major developers for diversified funding sources beyond domestic bank loans.

According to Nguyễn Đức Thông, chief executive officer of SSI Securities, Việt Nam’s economy still depends heavily on bank credit while the capital market, including the stock and corporate bond markets, accounts for only around 15–20 per cent of total funding in the economy.

He forecasted that the capital market would become a more effective fundraising channel for businesses in the coming years.

Market observers say developers are increasingly relying on bonds not only because of tighter real estate lending controls but also due to heavy debt maturities approaching this year.

According to MBS estimates, around VNĐ58.5 trillion worth of corporate bonds will mature in the second quarter alone, with the bulk concentrated in the property sector.

At the same time, pressure on debt repayment is building. FiinGroup estimated that problematic corporate bonds across the market totalled VNĐ12.8 trillion in the first quarter, up 6.3 per cent from a year earlier, with more than half linked to real estate issuers.

Analysts also warn that higher borrowing costs could deepen liquidity stress for weaker developers, particularly companies facing legal bottlenecks, slow project sales or heavy exposure to resort property segments.

Despite those risks, experts say the bond market will remain a crucial funding channel as Việt Nam seeks to reduce its dependence on bank credit and expand long-term capital mobilisation for infrastructure and property development projects.

Nguyễn Quang Thuân, chairman of FiinGroup, warned retail investors against chasing unusually high yields without carefully assessing legal risks and issuers’ financial health.

He also cautioned over the emergence of online savings products disguised as bonds promising returns of up to 12–14 per cent annually.

Experts say the current environment will force both issuers and investors to become more selective with stronger transparency, credit quality and project viability likely to determine access to funding in the coming quarters. — BIZHUB/VNS