Typhoon Yagi caused severe losses in many provinces in Việt Nam last year. —VNA/VNS Photo

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam could face a super typhoon comparable in intensity to Typhoon Yagi, which struck the country in 2024, on average once every seven years if global temperatures rise by four degrees Celsius, according to updated 2025 climate change scenarios.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has released the updated 2025 Climate Change Scenarios and integrated the document into the National Climate Change Database.

The scenarios provide a scientific basis for management, policymaking, planning, risk management and proactive adaptation to climate change.

Under the high-emissions scenario, the number of hot days could increase by more than 50 days by the end of the 21st century, while the number of days with extreme heat could rise by around 20 days.

By contrast, the number of days with severe cold and damaging cold in northern Việt Nam and the north-central region is projected to fall sharply.

Notably, maximum one-day and five-consecutive-day rainfall could increase by around 30–40 per cent in the northern and southern regions. The number of days with heavy rainfall is also projected to rise significantly, particularly in the south.

In some areas of northern Việt Nam, the Central Highlands and the south, the number of days with rainfall exceeding 100mm could increase by 80-100 per cent under the high-emissions scenario.

These changes point to a growing risk of extreme rainfall, highlighting the need to strengthen disaster prevention and response capacity and improve climate change adaptation.

Another major new feature is that, for the first time, the 2025 scenarios provide information on extreme climate events under global warming thresholds of 1.5, two, three and four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

According to the scenarios, as global temperatures rise, super typhoons comparable in intensity to Typhoon Yagi (2024) are likely to occur more frequently.

If global average temperatures rise by two degrees Celsius, Việt Nam could experience such a super typhoon once every 13 years on average.

The frequency would increase to once every nine years under the three-degree warming scenario and once every seven years if temperatures rise by four degrees.

Under the four-degree warming scenario, northern Việt Nam could be affected by a super typhoon once every 13 years on average, while the corresponding frequency in the central region is once every 16 years.

In the south, such storms are projected to be much less frequent, occurring approximately once every 133 years.

For the first time, the 2025 climate change scenarios also include an in-depth assessment of urban areas, focusing on Hà Nội and HCM City.

The assessment considers the combined effects of global warming and urbanisation, highlighting trends in rising temperatures, more frequent hot weather, the urban heat island effect and extreme rainfall.

The scenarios indicate that climate change will affect a range of climate-sensitive sectors, including public health, rice production and infrastructure.

In addition to intensifying extreme weather events, climate change is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as the planet warms.

By 2100, the average sea-level rise is projected to reach around 46.1cm under the low-emissions scenario and as much as 63.7cm under the high-emissions scenario.

Asso. Prof. Phạm Thị Thanh Ngà emphasised that climate change scenarios should not be confused with weather forecasts or climate predictions.

Rather, they are scientifically grounded hypothetical scenarios that illustrate possible future climate trends based on the relationships between socio-economic activities, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and sea-level rise.

She said effective use of the scenarios requires consideration of the uncertainties involved and the selection of scenarios appropriate to the intended purpose. — VNS