The Vietcombank Securities Company forecasts credit growth of the entire banking sector to reach approximately 16-18 per cent, exceeding the SBV's 15 per cent target. — Photo cafef.vn

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s central bank is tightening the reins on credit growth this year, but several dynamic private lenders are still setting ambitious lending targets, signalling a sharply differentiated outlook across the banking sector.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has set a credit growth target of 15 per cent for 2026, down from last year’s target of 16 per cent and well below the 19.1 per cent expansion recorded in 2025, reflecting a more cautious approach as it prioritises stability and risk control.

However, the credit growth picture among banks is expected to remain uneven in 2026 as some large lenders have begun setting targets to expand lending aggressively.

VPBank plans to exceed VNĐ1.29 quadrillion, or US$49 billion, in consolidated outstanding loans this year, equivalent to credit growth of around 34 per cent compared with last year.

MB is also targeting credit and deposit growth of about 35 per cent, with retail banking identified as its core segment.

Several other medium and small-sized banks are aiming for credit growth of around 20 per cent, although the credit limits granted by the SBV may be lower.

According to BIDV Securities Company, MSB expects the central bank to grant a credit growth limit of around 13 to 15 per cent, but anticipates its full-year credit growth in 2026 could reach 20 per cent.

Orient Commercial Joint Stock Bank (OCB) expects loan balances to increase by 22 per cent, prioritising key segments such as retail, small and medium-sized enterprises and foreign direct investment customers.

In a recent forecast for 2026, Vietcombank Securities Company projected credit growth across the entire banking sector of around 16 to 18 per cent, exceeding the SBV’s 15 per cent target.

The company said dynamic private banks are likely to continue leading credit expansion, with projected loan portfolio growth of more than 20 per cent.

Large banks that undertook mandatory transfers of weak banks and were granted additional credit expansion by the SBV as a reward are also expected to benefit from a preferential mechanism allowing higher-than-average credit growth.

Experts said that if the central bank begins a phased transition to abolish the credit growth limit mechanism from next year, banks with high capital adequacy ratios, such as VPBank, Techcombank and HDBank, could record credit growth above the sector average.

Banks with loan portfolios focused on priority sectors including agriculture, rural areas, retail, small and medium-sized enterprises and social housing, such as HDBank, VIB, Techcombank and ACB, will also see their credit risk weight for these loans reduced under Circular 14/2025/TT-NHNN, creating more room for credit expansion.

Under Circular 14/2025/TT-NHNN, which sets capital adequacy ratios for commercial banks and foreign bank branches in Việt Nam, the credit risk weight of loans in certain areas, including social housing purchases, small and medium-sized enterprises, agriculture and rural development, has been lowered.

Specifically, the credit risk weight for loans in agriculture and rural areas has been reduced from 100 per cent to 50 per cent. For loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, it has been cut from 90 per cent to 85 per cent.

For social housing loans, if the loan-to-collateral ratio is below 40 per cent, the credit risk weight is just 20 per cent. Even when the ratio is higher, the credit risk weight remains between 35 per cent and a maximum of 50 per cent, significantly lower than that applied to typical real estate loans. — BIZHUB/VNS