Việt Nam’s total fertility rate in 2025 was 1.93 children per woman, below replacement level, according to the General Department of Population. — VNA/VNS Photo

HÀ NỘI — Hà Nội and HCM City are among 10 provinces and municipalities with fertility rates below the national average, the Ministry of Health has said.

The low-fertility list also includes Khánh Hòa, Đồng Nai, An Giang, Đồng Tháp, Vĩnh Long, Cà Mau, Cần Thơ and Tây Ninh, the ministry said in draft documents accompanying a proposed national programme on health, population and development for the 2026-35 period.

The ministry has proposed surveys to identify factors influencing decisions to have children and the desired number of children among couples and young people, to build policies aimed at responding to low birth rates. The demographic and health surveys are planned for 2027-2028, with follow-up surveys in 2027, 2029 and 2030, the draft says.

The surveys would collect household and demographic data as well as information on reproductive and sexual health, family planning, maternal and child health, fertility and desired family size. The ministry also proposes specialised studies to assess links between population size, fertility and development.

Subproject 1 of the draft programme recommends measures to encourage marriage and childbearing, including premarital courses and education on reproductive and sexual health, pregnancy, childbirth, child‑rearing and household financial management for young people preparing to marry.

The General Department of Population said low fertility remains the biggest challenge for population policy. Việt Nam’s total fertility rate in 2025 was 1.93 children per woman, below replacement level, it said, adding that delayed marriage and childbirth and decisions to have fewer or no children are increasingly common, particularly in cities and low‑fertility areas.

Policies to encourage couples to have two children remain limited and largely at the pilot stage, the ministry said.

Prolonged low fertility would affect family size and structure, undermine the ability to maintain a balanced population and workforce, and strain long‑term social welfare systems. It could also accelerate population ageing and migration and shrink the labour force, the draft warns.

A 2025 General Statistics Office report, 'Population Projections for Vietnam 2024–2074', forecast continued population growth but at a slowing pace, with a peak around 2059. Under three fertility scenarios over 2024-2074 – low (1.45 children per woman), medium (1.85) and high (2.01) – the population would reach about 103.9 million, 114.2 million and 118.5 million, respectively.

Annual population growth is projected at 0.66 per cent for 2024-2029, then to fall to zero by 2060 and turn negative from 2061. If fertility remains low, the report projects population decline beginning in 2051 – a decade earlier than under the medium scenario. The report said the annual rate of decline would accelerate, averaging a 0.44 per cent fall per year by 2069-2074, equal to about 461,000 fewer people each year.

Under the high‑fertility scenario of 2.01 children per woman, Việt Nam’s population would still grow slightly through 2074, by about 58,000 people a year in 2069-2074. — VNS