Customers buy gold at a jewellery shop in Hà Đông Ward, Hà Nội, ahead of God of Wealth Day. — VNS Photo Ly Ly Cao

Ly Ly Cao

HÀ NỘI — As the Year of the Horse begins, Việt Nam’s gold market once again enters its most emotionally charged season, when centuries-old ritual meets modern price volatility.

This year, the Day of the God of Wealth fell on February 26. Traditionally regarded as an auspicious occasion for businesspeople, the day has long been associated with the custom of buying gold to pray for prosperity and financial luck. The ritual has evolved into a recurring seasonal highlight of the domestic gold market.

However, the festive atmosphere arrived at a time when gold prices were fluctuating sharply. Domestic gold was trading near VNĐ190 million (US$7,266) per tael (37.5 grams), while global spot prices were trading above $5,100 per ounce (31.1g), after experiencing strong swings since the beginning of the year.

According to a newly released report by UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research division, gold prices surged from above $4,300 per ounce at the start of 2026 to nearly $5,600 per ounce on January 28 before retreating to around $4,900 per ounce.

In this context of two-way volatility, gold has gained more than 30 per cent, significantly higher than gains recorded in the pandemic period, although still below the extreme levels recorded during the 2008 global financial crisis.

People queue to purchase gold at a jewellery shop in Hà Đông Ward, Hà Nội, ahead of God of Wealth Day, despite steady rain on the morning of February 25. — VNS Photo Ly Ly Cao

In recent years, domestic gold prices have typically remained elevated and maintained a considerable premium over global prices. When demand concentrates into just a few peak days around the God of Wealth occasion, supply-demand dynamics can push prices up even more sharply. Many buyers accept higher prices with a "buying for luck" mindset, but in reality, the market may adjust once peak demand cools.

The bid-ask spread also tends to widen during these days, meaning investors could incur losses if they intend to sell shortly after purchasing.

Buying surge

During the 2025 Lunar New Year season, for example, within a week of God of Wealth Day, SJC gold prices fell sharply from around VNĐ80 million per tael to approximately VNĐ74-75 million per tael. Many people queued overnight to buy gold for good fortune, only to see their holdings lose nearly 10 per cent of value within days.

Against this backdrop, many Vietnamese buyers continue to follow tradition, even if their purchases are symbolic.

Vũ Thị Hiền, a resident of Hà Đông Ward, Hà Nội, said this was the first year she had bought gold on God of Wealth Day despite the high prices.

"I like buying gold at the beginning of the year for good luck, but until this year I did not have enough financial capacity to buy, even though the price is high. So even if the price falls after God of Wealth Day, I won’t pay much attention," Hiền told Việt Nam News.

On the morning of the God of Wealth Day, SJC gold prices were quoted at VNĐ182 million per tael for sellers and VNĐ185 million per tael for buyers, VNĐ300,000 lower than the previous day.

The surge in buying interest reflects what many market observers describe as heightened crowd psychology, particularly as the auspicious day nears. Yet behind the glittering price charts are strong warnings from financial experts.

UOB analysts note that central banks worldwide, especially in emerging markets and Asia, continue to increase their strategic gold allocations. Some may view recent price corrections as opportunities to add to reserves. Net gold purchases by central banks are expected to remain a key source of market demand.

Customers line up to pay for their 'piece of luck' ahead of God of Wealth Day. — VNS Photo Ly Ly Cao

At the same time, institutional investors are reportedly considering increasing gold weightings in their portfolios as a hedge against US dollar risks, amid concerns over de-dollarisation trends and currency depreciation risks.

Complex geopolitical conditions and rising fiscal pressures in many economies continue to reinforce gold's role as a long-term risk-hedging asset, including against US Treasuries and other sovereign debt instruments.

UOB currently forecasts that gold prices will average around $4,800 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026 and gradually rise to $5,400 per ounce by the fourth quarter, an upward revision of $400 per ounce compared with its January 9 forecast.

Caution required

Despite the supportive medium-term outlook, experts emphasise the need for prudence.

Chu Phương, an expert at Giavang.net, said gold would remain a safe-haven asset and the medium-term investment trend was still positive, especially as prices hold above the psychological threshold of $5,000 per ounce. However, she noted that caution would be necessary when prices adjust, particularly for those considering new purchases.

Economist Nguyễn Trí Hiếu underscored the cultural dimension of gold in Việt Nam.

"Among investment channels such as gold, stocks, real estate, savings, bonds and, in the future, digital currency, gold remains the most vibrant investment channel. Vietnamese people's preference for gold has existed for a long time, and it remains an irreplaceable investment channel," he said.

Gold products prepared for God of Wealth Day are displayed at a jewellery shop. — VNS Photo Ly Ly Cao

Yet he warned that this very preference could become a double-edged sword during volatile periods. "Investors should not let fear of missing out dictate their decisions. Absolutely do not borrow money, sell off other assets or withdraw all bank deposits to pour into gold," Hiếu cautioned.

Instead of concentrating capital in a single asset, he advised diversification across gold, equities, real estate, foreign currencies and deposits as a core capital-preservation principle.

Gold analyst Nguyễn Toản in HCM City offered a technical perspective. The recent short-term rally, he said, was partly driven by China's significant selling of US Treasury bonds, prompting capital rotation into gold, silver and equities.

However, Toản warned of unusually extreme exuberance in the market as both stocks and gold rise simultaneously.

"In reality, large funds like SPDR are still reducing gold holdings, and big players are being very cautious," he stressed.

As Vietnamese buyers prepare for the annual ritual of purchasing gold for luck, the market stands at a delicate crossroads. Tradition, cultural belief and crowd psychology continue to fuel demand, while technical signals and macroeconomic factors introduce layers of risk.

In such an environment, tradition may draw buyers to the counter, but disciplined capital allocation and emotional restraint remain the true safeguards in this year’s God of Wealth season.— BIZHUB/VNS