Market expected to continue struggling this week

February 20, 2023 - 07:03
With the low liquidity, the VN-Index is likely to remain fluctuating in the range of 1,040 – 1,075 points this week.
Electric boards showing stock movements inside the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE). Photo courtesy of HoSE

HÀ NỘI — Although there are many risks as the global economy is facing uncertainties, the Vietnamese stock market is supported by positive news from policies and orientations of the Government. 

After two consecutive weeks of decline, the market recovered last week. However, the small gain in the market and low liquidity showed the caution of the cash flows.

On the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the VN-Index increased by 0.1 per cent to end last week at 1,059.31 points, while the HNX-Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange (HNX) fell 0.42 per cent to 209.95 points. 

Both benchmark indices rose last week, of which the former was up 0.4 per cent and the latter added 0.7 per cent. 

Đinh Quang Hinh, analyst of VNDirect Securities Corporation, said that the market received some supportive information last week such as some commercial banks actively lowered deposit and lending interest rates. 

Moreover, the Government also held a conference to find solutions to remove difficulties for the real estate sector, helping real estate stocks recover in the last sessions of the week.

But cash flow in the stock market, in general, was still weak, reflected in the low liquidity.

The trading value on HoSE decreased by 12.2 per cent compared to the previous trading week to more than VNĐ43.1 trillion (US$1.8 billion). Meanwhile, the trading value on HNX increased by 13.9 per cent to VNĐ4.85 trillion. Therefore, on average, the trading value in each session only reached VNĐ9.6 trillion on both exchanges.

Analyst Phạm Bình Phương from Mirae Asset Securities Vietnam said that liquidity was likely to hit the bottom, creating a balance opportunity for the market.

After many weeks of net buying, foreign investors turned to be net sellers on the two exchanges with net sold value of about VNĐ410 billion. 

Sacombank (STB)’s shares were sold the most by foreign investors with a value of VNĐ317 billion.

Influencing the market’s sentiment last week was the resilient economic data of the US showing that the US labour market remains strong and the inflation is still high. 

This raised the possibility of more rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve in the future.

Domestically, investors focused on an online conference solving and promoting the safe, healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market, with the expectation that the Government will soon have synchronous and drastic measures.

In the short term, Saigon - Hanoi Securities JSC (SHS) believes that the signals of interest rate reduction from commercial banks are positive, but the global economy is still struggling, especially the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict tends to escalate, causing the price of energy and many basic raw materials to continue to fluctuate unpredictably. 

Therefore, the potential of rising inflation and higher interest rates is still a big risk.

Meanwhile, MB Securities Company (MBS) said that the market rebounded slightly last week after falling for two consecutive weeks despite the low liquidity and outflows of foreign capital. The positive point is that the market’s breadth inclined to the positive territory with many stock groups reporting good performance. 

In addition, the liquidity below the threshold of VNĐ10 trillion shows that the selling pressure is not strong. With the low liquidity, the VN-Index is likely to remain fluctuating in the range of 1,040 – 1,075 points this week. VNS