HCM CITY — Outer-ring urban areas are reshaping the residential property market in HCM City thanks to large-scale developments and ongoing urban expansion, experts said.

The second-quarter report by CBRE revealed that the real estate market in HCM City sustained its supply recovery momentum with the launch of 6,573 condominium units and 1,934 landed property units for sale, marking a 20 per cent increase compared to the previous year. 

The new supply remains concentrated in satellite urban areas, reflecting a trend towards decentralisation due to limited land availability. Notably, Bình Dương continues to serve as a key source of new supply, contributing nearly 80 per cent of total new supply in the quarter.

A condo project in Bình Dương Ward of HCM City. Outer-ring urban areas are reshaping the residential property market in HCM City. — Photo courtesy of casland.vn

Landed property supply in the second quarter originated mainly from a large-scale mega-urban project on the outskirts of former HCM City. Meanwhile, condominium supply primarily came from projects within the inner city districts, which face challenges such as a restricted pipeline due to a limited land bank and ongoing legal complexities, resulting in a constrained level of new development.

By the end of the second quarter, the cumulative supply of condominiums in former HCM City reached nearly 355,000 units, with inventories accounting for a mere 2.3 per cent, indicating the scarcity of primary supply in urban core areas. 

The addition of large-scale supply from Bình Dương has diversified and made the market more accessible, with over half of the new supply priced below VNĐ60 million per square meter. However, as prices rise in Bình Dương, this pricing advantage is gradually diminishing.

The growth of outer-ring urban areas is attributed to infrastructure development. Significant infrastructure milestones include the official operation of the Biên Hòa – Vũng Tàu expressway in the second quarter, which enhances connections between HCM City, Đồng Nai, Cái Mép – Thị Vải port area, and the Vũng Tàu tourism cluster. Other key projects such as the expansion of National Highway 13 and the future North-South high-speed railway will further expand urban space and connectivity, fostering growth in the real estate market.

New supply of HCM City’s residential market in accordance with CBRE Vietnam Research. — Photo courtesy of CBRE Vietnam

Dương Thuỳ Dung, managing director of research and consulting, CBRE Vietnam, said: “Although the market is beginning to show positive signals in terms of new supply, buyer sentiment remains cautious amid macroeconomic factors such as inflationary pressure, elevated interest rates, and ongoing global economic volatility. Unlike previous growth cycles, most buyers today prioritise financial safety, avoid excessive leverage, and focus on products with real utility value, clear legal status, and sustainable long-term growth potential. In this context, the market continues to undergo stronger differentiation, with projects that offer prime locations, high development quality, and support from well integrated infrastructure emerging as the most attractive for capital inflows.”

The outlook for condo supply in the second half of the year appears favourable, with many projects completing legal procedures and preparing for sale. The expected increase in condominium supply in 2026, particularly in the South and East areas directly benefiting from transportation infrastructure investments, signals growth opportunities in these regions. 

In Bình Dương, new supply is anticipated to play a key role in supplementing the market due to ample land availability and competitive pricing.

Looking ahead, the landed property sector is expected to see ongoing improvement, with numerous township projects set to be developed in the South and East of HCM City, benefiting from completed transport infrastructure and urban space expansion. 

The supply of landed property is forecasted to grow steadily in the coming years, addressing the supply shortage and presenting opportunities for end-users and long-term investors. — VNS