A view of downtown HCM City. The city is targeting over 7 per cent growth in the first quarter amid strong economic momentum. — VNA/VNS Photo

HCM CITY — HCM City has set a target of more than 7 per cent economic growth in the first quarter of 2026, buoyed by strong industrial output and robust retail activity, as authorities outline plans to mobilise more than VNĐ1 quadrillion (US$38.5 billion) in annual social investment to sustain double-digit expansion in the years ahead.

The growth outlook was presented at a municipal government meeting on Friday reviewing socio-economic performance in the first two months and setting priorities for March.

According to city officials, most key economic indicators rose sharply compared with the same period in 2025, providing a foundation for the first-quarter target.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) climbed an estimated 14.6 per cent year-on-year in the first two months, the highest two-month increase in a decade.

The processing and manufacturing sector, the backbone of the city’s economy, expanded 16.4 per cent.

Other industrial segments also posted gains, including mining (up 4.4 per cent) and water supply and waste treatment (up 10.9 per cent).

Officials attributed the recovery to improving export orders, a gradual rebound in domestic demand, and continued efforts to ease administrative and credit bottlenecks for businesses.

Retail sales of goods and consumer services rose 13.1 per cent year-on-year, signalling strengthening domestic consumption.

Tourism remained a bright spot, generating more than VNĐ102 trillion in revenue in the first two months. During the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday alone, tourism revenue surged 64 per cent from a year earlier to nearly VNĐ14 trillion.

Trade activity also expanded, with exports reaching an estimated $14.7 billion, up 10.6 per cent, while imports rose 13.8 per cent to $16.6 billion as companies increased purchases of materials and equipment for production.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows increased 28.4 per cent, while nearly 9,000 new enterprises were established, a 63 per cent jump year-on-year, underscoring renewed business confidence.

Public investment disbursement reached 8.8 per cent of the annual plan in the first two months, significantly higher than 2.6 per cent in the same period last year.

Challenges

Officials, however, acknowledged that achieving a 30 per cent disbursement rate in the first quarter would remain challenging.

Speaking at the meeting, Nguyễn Văn Được, chairman of the People's Committee, stressed that while public investment would act as “seed capital,” it could not serve as the primary engine of growth.

To achieve average annual growth of 10-11 per cent and raise per capita GRDP to $14,000–15,000 by 2030, the city estimates it will require roughly VNĐ1.2 quadrillion in total annual investment.

Of that amount, the state budget would cover only 6 per cent, about VNĐ100-150 trillion, leaving approximately 94 per cent to be mobilised from private enterprises and households.

“We cannot rely solely on public investment to create breakthroughs,” Được said, calling for a shift in governance mindset from administrative control to risk management and investor support.

Municipal departments have been instructed to work directly with strategic investors and major corporations to secure concrete disbursement plans for 2026-2030, ensuring that registered capital translates into actual implementation rather than remaining on paper.

Authorities also plan to better quantify household investment such as new home construction and renovations as part of total social investment, aiming to capture previously undercounted domestic capital flows.

At the same time, the city pledged to streamline administrative procedures, shorten processing times and improve policy clarity to reduce risks for investors. — VNS

Foreign tourists take photos in front of the HCM City People’s Committee headquarters. Tourism growth has supported the city’s broader economic expansion drive. — VNS Photo Bồ Xuân Hiệp