Chinese trade set to remain in growth mode in upcoming quarter

December 03, 2018 - 02:50
Chinese trade set to remain in growth mode in upcoming quarter

  • Moderate declinein imports offset by robust exports via air and ocean freight, resulting insteady growth
  • Important growthsectors include Machinery Parts, Industrial Raw Materials and Consumer FashionGoods

 

SHANGHAI, CHINA - Media OutReach - 3 December 2018 - China's trade growth remains solid at an index of 58 points -- aslight decline of one point from the previous quarter, according to data fromthe DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL,the world's leading logistics company.



 

The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an earlyindicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligenceand Big Data, shows that China's exports via air and ocean trade show no signsof slowing down despite ongoing trade volatility between it and the UnitedStates and sentiment expecting slowing global trade momentum.

 

While imports for China are expected tocontract in sectors like High Technology and Chemicals & Products, thatdecline has been largely offset by strong exports of Machinery Parts,Industrial Raw Materials, Basic Raw Materials and Consumer Fashion Goods. Bothair and ocean freight volumes remain stable thanks to China's ongoing exportstrength.

 

"Thispositive outlook is a welcome sign even as China continues to set the barhigher in terms of its manufacturing quality, despite emerging struggles inparts of the consumer fashion industry,[1]"saidSteve Huang, CEO, DHL GlobalForwarding Greater China. "Exports of raw materials will also continue to grow asChina fosters and renews economic ties with trading partners, including thelatest 29-deal memorandum of understanding with the Philippines for rapidinfrastructural development in line with the Belt and Road.[2]All this suggests that pessimism surrounding China's economic fortunes may haveovershot reality, with the country's historic export strengths continuing to maintainmomentum despite overarching political rhetoric."

 

The Barometer's resultsalso indicate that global trade will continue to grow over the next threemonths and that the development of the previous quarters will continue. Thepace of growth, however, will particularly decelerate for Asia except for China.

 

"The DHL Global Trade Barometer clearly showsthat the state of global trade remains solid. Both air and ocean trade continueto grow around the world. However, given the smoldering trade conflicts,especially between the United States and China, and economists' expectationsthat the global economy could cool down, it is not entirely surprising thattrade momentum has weakened slightly," said Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL GlobalForwarding, Freight.

 

Indices for all seven countries that constitute the GTB index -- China, Germany, India, Japan, South Korea, theUnited Kingdom, and the United States -- are above 50 points. In the Global Trade Barometermethodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while valuesbelow 50 indicate contraction.

 

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is aninnovative and unique early indicator for the current state and futuredevelopment of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics datathat are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator hasbeen developed in cooperation between DHL, the world's leading logisticscompany, and IT service provider Accenture. It is published four times a year.The next release date is scheduled for March 27, 2019.

 

DHL -- The logistics company for the world

 

DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL familyof divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging fromnational and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillmentsolutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrialsupply chain management. With about 360,000 employees in more than 220countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businessessecurely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutionsfor growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences andhealthcare, energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporateresponsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL isdecisively positioned as "The logistics company for the world".

 

DHL is part ofDeutsche Post DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of more than 60 billioneuros in 2017.


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