India poised to lead global economic growth despite widespread trade slowdown

December 03, 2018 - 02:49
India poised to lead global economic growth despite widespread trade slowdown

  • India continues to lead global ranking for the DHL Global TradeBarometer even as air and ocean freight volumes decline
  • Basic Raw Materials, High Technology and Machinery Parts areexpected to sustain the greatest positive contributions to India's near-termgrowth

 

MUMBAI, INDIA - MediaOutReach  - December 3,2018 - India's pace of growth continues to lead the world's largesteconomies with its trade index of 75 points on the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL,the world's leading logisticscompany, farexceeding its Asian and European counterparts.



 

The DHL Global TradeBarometer, an earlyindicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligenceand Big Data, revealed that India's trade and economic growth prospects lookthe most positive out of the world's largest seven economies for the three-monthforecast period ending in January.This is despite the country's overall index declining by eight points from theprevious quarter, amidst a slowing global trade momentum. India retained poleposition on the Barometer throughout 2018, reaching its peak in February with ascore of 86.



 

"We are heading into 2019 with the most positivity in Basic Raw Materials, High Technology and Machinery Parts, with slight index increases in bothsegments," said George Lawson, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding India. "That alludesto India's continual rise in standards of living, evolving lifestyles and ruraldemand that have contributed to annual consumption growth of close to 10% in2018.[1]

 

"Earlier this year, India also overtook Germany to become the fourthlargest automobile market in the world, with domestic sales growing by 9.5%,[2]even as it continues to be a vehicle manufacturing hub for both foreign exportsand domestic use.[3]The Barometer's results reflect that resilience with a slight increase for LandVehicles and Motor Parts to an index of 70."

 

The Barometer's resultsalso suggest that global trade will continue to grow over the next three monthsand that the development of the previous quarters will continue. The pace ofgrowth, however, will particularly decelerate for Asia except for China.

 

"The DHL Global Trade Barometer clearly shows that the state of globaltrade remains solid. Both air and ocean trade continue to grow around theworld. However, given the smoldering trade conflicts, especially between the UnitedStates and China, and economists' expectations that the global economy couldcool down, it is not entirely surprising that trade momentum has weakenedslightly," said Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight.

 

Indices for all seven countries that constitute the GTB index --including China, Germany, India,Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States -- are above 50 points. Inthe Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicatespositive growth, while values below 50 indicate contraction.

 

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is aninnovative and unique early indicator for the current state and futuredevelopment of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics datathat are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator hasbeen developed in cooperation between DHL, the world's leading logisticscompany, and IT service provider Accenture. It is published four times a year.The next release date is scheduled for March 27, 2019.

 

DHL -- The logistics company for the world

 

DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL familyof divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging fromnational and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillmentsolutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrialsupply chain management. With about 360,000 employees in more than 220countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businessessecurely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutionsfor growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences and healthcare,energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporate responsibilityand an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL is decisively positionedas "The logistics company for the world".

 

DHL is part ofDeutsche Post DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of more than 60 billioneuros in 2017.


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