Market heading towards 1,850-point level: analysts

April 20, 2026 - 06:59
Securities firms generally described the market's near-term direction as constructive, with an upside target hovering around the 1,850-point zone, while acknowledging that volatility could increase near resistance areas.
Investors watch market movements on a securities firm trading floor. —Photo baochinhphu.vn

HÀ NỘI — The stock market extended its momentum for a fourth consecutive week, with the VN‑Index closing above 1,817 points, as bullish sentiment was reinforced, although trading flow remained concentrated in large-cap stocks rather than spreading broadly across sectors.

Last week, the market's benchmark VN‑Index on the Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HoSE) closed at 1,817.17 points, gaining 3.84 per cent from the previous week.

On HoSE, turnover reached over VNĐ125.1 trillion (US$4.75 billion), up nearly 3 per cent, while average daily trading value was around VNĐ25.15 trillion.

Meanwhile on the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), the HNX‑Index rose by 4.55 per cent over the previous week to 260 points, with total transaction value reaching VNĐ7.7 trillion, up 6.5 per cent.

Foreign investors continued to net sell throughout the week, with a net value of nearly VNĐ4.5 trillion. Of that figure, net selling via matched orders was reported at approximately VNĐ1.1 trillion.

While liquidity improved, the broader market did not see a strong surge, pointing to trading activity returning with caution.

Securities firms generally described the market's near-term direction as constructive, with an upside target hovering around the 1,850-point zone, while acknowledging that volatility could increase near resistance areas.

Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) said the chart signals indicate the index is still in an uptrend and has not shown signs of reversal.

Based on that view, VCBS expects the VN‑Index may continue rising toward 1,850 - 1,880 points.

ACB Securities (ACBS) said that the short-term uptrend remained dominant after the week saw four sessions of gains.

However, ACBS noted that the current rally relied heavily on Vingroup stocks, reflecting localised demand.

The brokerage warned that without broader participation, the longevity of the upswing could be questioned even if the index still heads toward 1,850 or even 1,900 points.

ASEAN Securities framed the market's reaction as positive at a mid-term support area around 1,750 points, leaving room for a further rebound. The firm also identified near-term resistance around 1,900 points.

On the other hand, a more cautious tone came from Vietnam Construction Securities and Saigon - Hanoi Securities (SHS).

Vietnam Construction Securities said the market might see correction phases this week when large-cap stocks weaken, using the support zone around 1,765 points as a level to watch before a new trend is confirmed.

SHS added that the market might need more time to accumulate, given that short-term growth is not yet clearly established, while risks from interest rates, exchange rates and geopolitical factors remain.

According to SHS, current stock prices are returning to a more reasonable level against long-term prospects.

However, the firm said the short-term growth driver was not yet truly clear and that expected returns from stocks still did not appear sufficiently attractive versus bank deposit rates, contributing to a more cautious stance among market participants.

The macro environment is also mixed. GDP growth in the first quarter reached 7.83 per cent, indicating the economy continues to show recovery momentum, while risks related to interest rates, exchange rates and external factors remain present.

Investors are expected to keep an eye on key developments, including Q1/2026 business results, the progress of market upgrades and changes in companies' input costs.

The market is still building an upward phase and moving toward 1,850 points, but the rally's dependence on large-cap leaders and the lack of wide sector participation were repeatedly noted as factors that could increase the chance of short-term pullbacks and consolidation before any more durable trend forms. — BIZHUB/VNS

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