|Investors watch stock indices on a laptop screen. The market's exploration of supply and demand has not shown signs of ending and may continue in the near future before there is a specific trend signal. VNA/VNS Photo|
HÀ NỘI Shares are expected to move positively this week thanks to supporting macro information with the VN-Index heading to the resistance area around 1,070 points.
On the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange, the VN-Index lost 0.27 per cent, to close Friday at 1,052.48 points.
The index had gained 0.06 per cent last week.
An average of 822.6 million shares worth VNĐ14.2 trillion (US$601.6 million) were traded during each session on the southern exchange last week.
Forecasting the next trading week, Đinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy Department, VNDirect Securities Company, said that market movements can improve thanks to supportive macro information, such as the State Bank's expansion of credit growth room, the Ministry of Finance submitting to the Government a draft amendment to Decree 65 on corporate bonds.
Hinh forecast that VN-Index might head to the resistance area around 1,070 points next week. If it surpasses this zone, VN-Index will move towards the next resistance, around 1,100 points.
The analysis team of Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) has a more cautious forecast.
“From a technical point of view, VN-Index is still struggling to accumulate around 1,050 points. Although the demand has not returned, the VN-Index is still in the recovery wave, so it will need more time to accumulate to return to the uptrend and move to the upper points. If selling pressure suddenly appears, 1,030 points will still be identified as a reliable support level of the market,” VCBS said.
“The market's exploration of supply and demand has not shown signs of ending and may continue in the near future before there is a specific trend signal,” said Việt Dragon Securities Co.
“Therefore, investors should still observe supply and demand movements to re-evaluate the market's state, and still need to consider taking profits or restructuring the portfolio in the direction of minimising risks when the market moves to the resistance. For a new buying position, priority should be given to some stocks with good fundamentals and active accumulation or move back to accumulation.”
“The market failed to rally around the resistance zone, showing that the selling pressure is still present. However, in general, the market is still in a state of hesitation, it is likely that the sideways will continue in the near future before there is a specific trend signal.
“Therefore, investors should still observe supply and demand movements to re-evaluate the market's state. At the same time, it is necessary to consider taking profit or structuring the portfolio in the direction of minimising risk when the market approaches the resistance zone,” the company said.
Vũ Thị Chân Phương, Vice Chairwoman of the State Securities Commission, said that despite many difficulties, opportunities still exist for the Vietnamese stock market.
According to Phương, Việt Nam's stock market in 2022 has experienced many fluctuations. The downtrend of the market started in April, but the recovery spans still appeared in May and August and at the end of November.
As of November 30, the VN-Index reached 1,048.42 points, down 30 per cent compared to the end of 2021. Market liquidity also tended to decrease continuously during this period, with the average trading value decreasing from VNĐ26.3 trillion per session in April to VNĐ13,017 billion per session in November.
In the first 11 months of this year, the average trading value reached VNĐ20.6 trillion per session, down 22.7 per cent compared to the average in 2021.
The leaders of the Securities Commission said that the fluctuations in the stock market mainly stem from the cautious sentiment of investors in the face of uncertainties and a less positive outlook on the world economy and politics.
The Securities Commission also pointed to a series of positive factors that may affect the market in 2023.
US inflation has shown signs of cooling down in the past few months, and the Fed is expected to reduce the intensity of interest rate hikes. The pressure on the domestic exchange rate will also gradually decrease and this will be a positive signal for the Vietnamese economy in general and the stock market in particular.
Many international organisations still highly appreciate the results and prospects of Việt Nam's economic development. The IMF's Asian Economic Outlook in October 2022 forecasts Việt Nam's GDP growth to be the highest in ASEAN, reaching 7 per cent in 2022 and 6.2 per cent in 2023. VNS