High imports and government incentives to underpin South Korea’s continued trade growth

December 03, 2018 - 02:50
High imports and government incentives to underpin South Korea’s continued trade growth

  • DHL Global Trade Barometer forecasts ocean trade to remain at a steadyhigh level despite a slowdown in air trade
  • The country's growth is being driven primarily by imports of Industrialand Basic Raw Materials, as well as Personal and Household Goods

 

SEOUL,KOREA - Media OutReach - 3 December 2018 - SouthKorea's trade growth remains relatively steady and upbeat despite its growthindex declining by five points from the previous quarter, according to datafrom the DHL Global TradeBarometer released by DHL, the world's leading logistics company. Thecountry's overall index for the three-month forecast period ending in January standsat 64 points, the second highest after India of the four Asian economies surveyed.



 

The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an earlyindicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligenceand Big Data, predicts that while the growth outlook for airtrade in South Korea is to decelerate significantly by 11 points, ocean trade will stabilize after a positive first half in 2018 toremain unchanged at 66 points. That resilience in ocean freight owes itselflargely to sustaineddemand for imports of Basic Raw Materials, Personal and Household Goods andChemicals and Products.

 

"We are seeing robust growth on the import frontin both air and ocean trade, both of which suggest that the South Koreaneconomy will continue to flourish even amidst ongoing global trade fluctuations,"said SP Song, Managing Director,DHL Global Forwarding Korea. "Strong imports of basic and industrial rawmaterials allude to the impact of recent measures to boost South Korea'sdomestic industries, including 15 trillion won (€11.6 billion) in governmentsupport for small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as 1.3 trillion won (€$1billion) of credit guaranteesfor the automobile and ship-building industry.[1]

 

"Whilewe observe substantial declines in South Korea's indices for some mainstay sectorslike High Technology, others like Machinery Parts and Land Vehicles & Partsremain relatively stable. That should come as cause for confidence in thelong-term growth prospects of South Korea's economy, even as trade volumesglobally continue to fluctuate."

 

The Barometer's results also suggest that globaltrade will continue to grow over the next three months and that the developmentof the previous quarters will continue. The pace of growth, however, willparticularly decelerate for Asia except for China.

 

"The DHL Global Trade Barometer clearly shows thatthe state of global trade remains solid. Both air and ocean trade continue togrow around the world. However, given the smoldering trade conflicts,especially between the United States and China, and economists' expectationsthat the global economy could cool down, it is not entirely surprising thattrade momentum has weakened slightly," said Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL GlobalForwarding, Freight.

 

Indicesfor all seven countries that constitute the GTB index -- China, Germany, India, Japan, South Korea, theUnited Kingdom, and the United States -- are above 50 points. In the Global Trade Barometer methodology, an indexvalue above 50 indicates positive growth, while values below 50 indicatecontraction.

 

Launchedin January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is an innovative and uniqueearly indicator for the current state and future development of global trade.It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the helpof artificial intelligence. The indicator has been developed in cooperationbetween DHL, the world's leading logistics company, and IT service providerAccenture. It is published four times a year. The next release date isscheduled for March 27, 2019.

 

DHL -- The logistics company for the world

 

DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL familyof divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging fromnational and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillmentsolutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrialsupply chain management. With about 360,000 employees in more than 220countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businessessecurely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutionsfor growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences andhealthcare, energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporateresponsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL isdecisively positioned as "The logistics company for the world".

 

DHL ispart of Deutsche Post DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of more than 60billion euros in 2017.


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