A view of Dung Quất Refinery in Quảng Ngãi Province. — Photo bsr.com.vn

HÀ NỘI — PetroVietnam Refining and Petrochemical Corporation (BSR), a producer and commercial supplier of E10 RON95 biofuel, is forecast to record a record profit after tax of VNĐ32.6 trillion (US$1.3 billion) in 2026, more than six times its result last year, according to a new report by securities firm Yuanta.

The forecast is driven primarily by an increase in refining margins, with the crack spread - the difference between the price of crude oil and the selling prices of refined products - projected to reach $33 per barrel, up 160 per cent from 2025.

Yuanta expects BSR's gross profit margin to rise to 19 per cent this year, compared with 4 per cent in 2025, supported by the wider spread between input costs and output prices.

BSR supplies approximately 35 per cent of the country's domestic fuel demand. Its processing capacity stands at 6.5 million tonnes per year.

The company recorded strong business results in the first half of 2026, with profit after tax increasing 12-fold year on year to approximately VNĐ16 trillion. Its gross profit margin climbed to 17 per cent from 3 per cent in the same period last year, as the crack spread increased 192 per cent.

However, Yuanta expects BSR's profit to decline in the following two years as refining margins cool. Profit after tax is forecast to fall to VNĐ14.7 trillion in 2027 and VNĐ13.2 trillion in 2028.

The securities firm expects profit to recover to VNĐ17.5 trillion in 2029, following the planned completion of the upgrade and expansion project at the Dung Quất Refinery.

The project is expected to be a key longer-term growth driver for BSR by expanding its ability to process heavier crude oil with higher sulphur content, broadening its choices of feedstock and increasing production of higher-value refined products.

Approved in principle in 2014, the project has an estimated investment of VNĐ36-40 trillion. Once completed, it is expected to increase the refinery's processing capacity from 148,000 barrels per day to 171,000 barrels per day.

The upgrade is also expected to raise the refinery's Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) from 6.6 to 8.1. 

The index measures a refinery's ability to process more complex crude oil and produce higher-value products, with a reference maximum of around 20.

After the upgrade, BSR's NCI is expected to improve considerably from its current level, although it would remain below the average of 9–10 for major Asian refineries, according to the information provided.

On the stock market, BSR closed Friday down nearly 3 per cent to VNĐ31,050 per share. — BIZHUB/VNS