Tourists visit Hoàn Kiếm Lake in Hà Nội on October 9. Cold periods are likely to arrive later this year due to the effects of the climate phenomenon El Niño. — VNA/VNS Photo Minh Quyết

HÀ NỘI — The climate phenomenon El Niño is expected to persist at a very strong intensity from November until January 2027, according to the nationwide climate forecast issued by the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting on Thursday.

Due to the influence of El Niño, average temperatures across the country in November are expected to be 1-2 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average.

Rainfall is projected to be 15-30 per cent above the long-term average in the northern region, and 20-40 per cent below average in the central region.

In December and January 2027, average temperatures are expected to be 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius higher than average across the country, but 1-2 degrees higher in the Central Highlands and the southern region, specifically.

From February to April 2027, El Niño will persist, although with intensity reduced from very strong to moderate-to-strong, before gradually returning to a neutral state.

During this period, average temperatures nationwide are expected to be 1-2 degrees Celsius higher than average.

According to Nguyễn Đức Hòa, deputy head of the centre's climate forecasting division: “From November 2026 to January 2027, the number of storms and tropical depressions active in the East Sea and making landfall in Việt Nam is likely to be below the long-term average.

“From February to April 2027, it is unlikely that any storms or tropical depressions will appear in the East Sea.”

The average number of storms forming in the East Sea is 2.8, with 1.1 making landfall, Hòa added.

Cold air masses are expected to be less active than average this year, with periods of intense cold likely arriving later.

There are expected to be less days with severe or extreme cold in the north and north-central region than average.

Nevertheless, there remains a possibility of severe or extreme cold spells that could trigger sharp, although short-lived, drops in temperature, according to Hòa.

“Climate change is becoming increasingly complex, which can be seen thourgh various dangerous and extreme phenomena such as intense heatwaves, heavy rainfall over short periods, as well as flash floods and landslides,” he said.

“Consequently, we advise the public and local authorities to stay updated with forecasts and warnings, specifically those covering short-term periods of one to three days," Hòa added. 

"This will allow for timely adjustments to production plans and emergency response strategies, especially regarding the operation of reservoirs, to ensure the safety of infrastructure, downstream areas and the continuity of both production activities and daily life.” — VNS