Lê Đức Cường, Deputy Director of the Northern Central Hydro-meteorology Station under the General Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Photo baotaiguyenmoitruong.vn

The north-central region of Việt Nam frequently experiences severe natural disasters. To ensure effective disaster prevention and search and rescue operations, the role of hydro-meteorological agency is crucial.

Lê Đức Cường, the Deputy Director of the Northern Central Hydro-meteorology Station under the General Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, spoke to the Tài nguyên và Môi trường (Natural Resources and Environment) online newspaper about why their work is so important.

Could you describe the general weather and climate characteristics of the north-central region in 2024?

The north-central region is known for its significant rainfall, averaging between 1,500 and 2,200 mm annually, with uneven distribution. The dry season lasts from November to April, contributing only 15-20 per cent of the annual rainfall, with January and February being the driest months. The rainy season spans from May to October, accounting for 80-85 per cent of the yearly rainfall. The peak rainfall period is from August to October, comprising about 50-60 per cent of the total annual rainfall.

This stark contrast in rainfall between the wet and dry seasons, along with the uneven distribution of rainfall and natural water flow throughout the year, often leads to droughts and water shortages in the dry season and floods in the rainy season.

Additionally, there is a significant temperature difference between the months.

The hottest months of June and July have average temperatures of 29-31°C, while the coldest months of December to February average 18-19°C. Transitional months, including April, May, June, September, October and November often see extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong winds, which can cause considerable damage to life and property.

This rainy and stormy season is approaching. Could you provide an update on the forecast for rain and storms in the north-central region? Are there any unusual or unexpected weather conditions expected?

In 2024, natural disasters are expected to be more complex and difficult to predict due to the ENSO phase transition from El Nino to La Nina. Specifically, El Nino is projected to remain neutral until the end of June 2024, transitioning to La Nina around July to August 2024, with a probability of 60-65 per cent.

As a result, the first half of the year is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves compared to the multi-year average, with potential records for absolute highest temperatures and localised or widespread droughts due to insufficient rainfall.

In contrast, the latter half of the year is expected to see rainfall levels at or above the multi-year average, leading to increased occurrences of floods, flash floods and landslides. Tropical storms and depressions are predicted to impact the north-central region, particularly during the late storm season between September to November, with unpredictable weather conditions.

Do you have any advice or warnings for residents? What will the hydro-meteorology agency do to support local communities in disaster prevention during the rainy and stormy season?

To mitigate weather-related damage, residents should regularly follow weather forecasts and warnings via various media channels and take proactive measures.

Simultaneously, local authorities should disseminate hydro-meteorological knowledge and enhance awareness and responsibility for disaster prevention and response among all sectors and the public.

As for the hydro-meteorology agency, given the unusual weather patterns, the North-central Regional Hydro-meteorological Station is committed to not only providing early and remote impact forecasts, but also continuously monitoring weather developments to deliver timely warnings for any potential situations.

We will actively support local communities and authorities, prioritising the highest safety standards. – VNS