Drought at Lake Chilwa in Zomba District, eastern Malawi. — AFP/VNA Photo

Børge Brende

Today’s most pressing challenges – as well as the future’s most promising opportunities – are not bound by borders. Strengthening our economies, improving our collective security, addressing climate change, and unlocking the benefits of frontier technologies all depend on cooperative approaches. Yet, the world is at risk of drifting toward a perilous state in which collaborative agendas are replaced by confrontational mindsets.

A more contentious geopolitical climate is of such concern that this past September, at the opening of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Secretary-General António Guterres warned: “Global challenges are mounting. And we seem incapable of coming together to respond.”

Indeed, alarm bells abound – for instance, just 12 per cent of the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are on target to be met by the 2030 deadline.

Thankfully, though, there are some bright spots.

At the G20 Summit last December, India made it a priority to include representation from the Global South in the dialogue and steered leaders of the world’s largest economies to agreement on a joint declaration on climate financing, global debt, and other issues – this despite predictions that agreement would be impossible to achieve.

At the UN Climate Conference in Dubai this past November – COP28 – the United Arab Emirates committed to leading an “inclusive and safe space for all participants” and parties agreed for the first time to transition away from fossil fuels toward renewable sources of energy.

And later this month, Saudi Arabia and the World Economic Forum will convene leaders from around the world for a special meeting in Riyadh on strengthening cooperation, particularly between the Global North and South.

What these instances have in common is that the successes are due in large measure to an inclusive approach and to the leadership of so-called “middle powers” – countries such as India, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia that are not global superpowers but are playing an outsized role in moving the global agenda forward.

Today, at a time of geopolitical turbulence, middle-power leadership –particularly middle-power leadership from the Middle East – will determine whether the world makes progress on critical security, environmental and technology priorities. Because the solutions to several of the world’s most pressing challenges not only run through the region but require the type of collaborative approaches middle powers have championed.

On global security, leadership from Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, will be vital in forging paths forward in two of the most urgent crisis: Ukraine and Gaza. In August 2023, Jeddah hosted peace talks for Ukraine that were vital in bringing to the table key parties from the Global North and South. In a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud in Riyadh earlier this year, the two discussed ways to operationalise the Ukrainian peace plan. Riyadh has also been a critical player in working to bring parties to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza. At the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos this past January, Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan reiterated the Kingdom’s commitment to formally recognising Israel if it takes steps toward a two-state solution with Palestinians.

On climate change, the success of a green energy transition that is equitable and fosters growth can only happen if capitals in the Middle East help move it forward. Because while the region produces approximately 30 per cent of the world’s oil and 23 per cent of its natural gas, many countries are poised to become green power leaders of the future. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, recently said the Kingdom is committed to being the “centrepiece” in the renewable market. Indeed, through its Vision 2030 plan, the country is diversifying non-oil exports and aiming to increase its share of non-oil GDP from 16 per cent to 50 per cent by the end of the decade.

And on unlocking new technology opportunities ahead, generative AI has the potential to add between US$2.6 and $4.4 trillion in economic benefits annually, according to McKinsey & Company. But this can only happen if stakeholders around the world work together. Here, Saudi Arabia has been building partnerships with countries around the world and has committed to an annual investment of 2.5 per cent of GDP in the research, development, and innovation sector by 2040.

At a complex geopolitical moment, when challenges demand collective approaches, if middle powers continue to shape solutions, and do so in a collaborative way, we will be on course toward a stronger future.

Børge Brende is President of the World Economic Forum, which is convening the Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth and Energy for Development from 28-29 April 2024, in Riyadh.