|A security guard walks past boards showing market movements on the SSI trading floor in Hà Nội. — VNS Photo Đoàn Tùng.
HÀ NỘI — Vietnamese stocks are forecast to experience volatility and adjustments in some trading sessions next week but the rising momentum will continue to be the mainstream trend in the short term, analysts said.
The benchmark VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) increased 0.22 per cent to close at 1,039.01 points. Last week witnessed the strongest growth of the VN-Index during the last two months with the index recording weekly gains of 4.7 per cent.
On the Hà Nội Stock Exchange (HNX), the HNX-Index edged up 0.73 per cent to end at 119.86 points on Friday.
The northern market index fell a total 3.6 per cent in the week.
An average of 223.3 million shares worth VNĐ6.2 trillion (US$272 million) were traded per session on the two exchanges, down 6.2 per cent in volume and 1.5 per cent in value compared to the previous week.
According to Bảo Việt Securities Company (BVSC), after two consecutive rising weeks, the VN-Index is forecast to face challenges next week.
“Key information likely to affect the stock market next week includes the results of the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s meeting, restructuring of two ETF portfolios (June 15th) and information about first-quarter business outlooks of enterprises,” it said.
The inflow of foreign capital was a strong supporter of the market’s upward trend last week.
Foreigners were net purchasers for the first time in nearly two consecutive months of maintaining net selling.
They posted a net buy value of more than VNĐ122.8 billion on both exchanges.
Hoàng Thạch Lân, head of individual client analysis at Việt Dragon told tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn that the significant improvement in trading volume of foreigners in the past two weeks has created a solid foundation, at least psychologically, for investors to become more confident in the market.
However, the movements of foreign traders will be hardly predictable, as it will much depend on the Fed’s moves, he added.
According to Vũ Minh Đức, head of market analysis at Việt Capital Securities JSC (VCSC), in May, foreigners were increasingly accelerating net selling.
This period of time also witnessed the wave of capital withdrawal of foreign investors from emerging markets to shift towards the US market due to the increasing attractiveness of the US dollar.
“However during the current time, while observing the volatility of foreign-run exchange traded funds (ETFs), we do not see the trend of strong capital withdrawals,” Đức said.
This showed that most foreign capital flows were still being kept in the Vietnamese market to wait for the coming IPO wave, or beyond, for the prospect of the market being upgraded to emerging market status from its current frontier market, he added.
“Thus, although the Fed may continue to raise interest rates in this June meeting, the Vietnamese stock market is still attractive enough to compete with the strength of the dollar,” Đức said.
Technically, according to him, the market had found its bottom and will maintain an upward trend with the new target of reaching 1,080 points.
Sharing the same idea, Nguyễn Thế Minh, head of analysis at Yuanta Securities Vietnam Co, said cash flow had spread among large-cap stock groups last week and the pressure of adjustment due to profit-taking remained low.
“Although the market will see adjustments during some coming trading sessions, I still believe that it will continue to maintain its uptrend momentum next week,” Minh said.
Buyback schemes of large-cap business owners and their related shareholders have helped boost stock prices.
Among local stocks that have seen prices rise after business leaders and their relatives registered to purchase shares back was Vietnam Prosperity Joint Stock Commercial Bank (VPBank).
After debuting on the southern exchange in mid-August last year at VNĐ39,000 ($1.73) per share, VPBank (VPB) rose 77.7 per cent in eight months to the highest value of VNĐ69,300 per share on April 9. VPBank erased that growth to close May 28 at VNĐ38,800 per share – its post-listing record low.
VPBank shares had jumped 33.5 per cent since its record low to end Friday at VNĐ51,800 per share after the bank chairman’s wife announced on May 29 she would buy five million shares and the bank itself last week planned nearly VNĐ2.5 trillion on purchasing back 73.2 million bonus shares.
Chairman Nguyễn Đức Tài of Mobile World Investment Corporation (MWG) on May 29 registered to buy 100,000 shares after the company shares had experienced strong volatility for two months, ending May 28 at VNĐ102,300 per share.
This was also the first time Mobile World’s chairman registered his share buyback since the firm’s listing on the HCM Stock Exchange in July 2014. It has boosted MWG nearly 18.3 per cent to end Friday at VNĐ121,000 per share.
Budget carrier Vietjet (VJC) on April 2 reached its record high of VNĐ226,890 per share but then slipped to VNĐ147,000 per share on May 30. The firm’s managing director Lưu Đức Khánh registered to purchase 500,000 shares and VJC shares have gained 22 per cent to end Friday at VNĐ172,000 per share. — VNS