Unsold apartments in the second quarter of this year exceeded 12,800, a 22 per cent increase from the previous quarter and up nearly four times the figure from the same period last year. — VNA/VNS Photo

Compiled by Thu Hà

HÀ NỘI — As inventories have continued to surge due to a widening gap between property prices and buyers' affordability, real estate enterprises must re-evaluate their development strategies, product structures and the pace of land fund expansion to resolve the problem, experts said.

According to the Ministry of Construction, total inventory of real estate developers' projects in the second quarter of 2026 was nearly 39,300 units. Of this total, the number of apartments exceeded 12,800, a 22 per cent increase from the previous quarter and up nearly four times the figure from the same period last year.

Inventory of individual houses within the projects topped 15,300, rising 46 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 48 per cent year-on-year, while land plots totalled 11,148 products, a 25 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase.

Notably, the inventory has kept rising while new supply is expanding. In the second quarter of this year alone, 131 commercial housing projects with over 59,000 products met the criteria for sale, a 70 per cent increase year-on-year. However, high supply does not equate to easy market absorption.

Cushman & Wakefield reported approximately 9,700 apartment transactions in Hà Nội during the first half of the year, of which nearly 4,600 took place in the second quarter, down 45 per cent year-on-year.

Savills noted that 80 per cent of the apartment supply in HCM City last quarter was priced at more than VNĐ120 million per square metre, while the market-wide absorption rate reached only 32 per cent, down 8 per cent from the previous quarter.

Cao Thị Thanh Hương, deputy director of Research at Savills HCM City, said that the market's biggest bottleneck currently lies in price. Supply is predominantly in the high-end segment, while affordable products are becoming increasingly scarce.

Meanwhile, capital costs continue to exert pressure. The Ministry of Construction reports that many home loans have shifted to floating interest rates of 13-16 per cent per annum, after the initial preferential rate periods ended. As borrowing costs rise, buyers' capacity to absorb credit diminishes, while financial pressure mounts on highly leveraged enterprises.

A large inventory in the balance sheets of real estate companies showed that a massive amount of capital is tied up in projects. Inventory value of some top companies surpassed the VNĐ100 trillion (US$3.8 billion) mark, with some cases exceeding VNĐ200 trillion by the end of the second quarter of 2026.

Financial data also showed rapid inventory accumulation among certain enterprises in recent years, with some reporting inventory rising from VNĐ28.6 trillion in 2021 to VNĐ134.8 trillion in 2025, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of nearly 47.4 per cent.

In the first half of 2026 alone, inventory continued to surge by 57 per cent to reach VNĐ206.7 trillion, surpassing the VNĐ200 trillion milestone for the first time.

Meeting market demands

The figures above demonstrate that inventory is not merely a matter of unsold products, but also means significant amounts of capital tied up in land, construction costs, project development and related investments.

Until these assets are converted into revenue and cash flow, enterprises must continue to bear financial costs, project operating expenses and capital obligations. The larger the inventory, the greater the pressure on the balance sheet, particularly if market liquidity fails to improve in tandem.

Of course, real estate inventory is not always a negative indicator. For companies with quality land funds, projects with complete legal documentation and products that meet market demand, inventory can serve as an asset base for long-term growth. The race to expand land funds can also create a competitive advantage as the market enters a new cycle.

However, long-term advantages cannot eliminate short-term pressures. Many enterprises are currently seeing their inventory levels rise while grappling with high capital costs amid low purchasing power due to high housing prices. In such a scenario, land funds can become a burden if they fail to generate corresponding cash flow.

Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Construction Contractors Nguyễn Quốc Hiệp said that the current investment environment offers both incentives and intense competitive pressure. The risk of inventory accumulation increases if projects fail to align with market demands.

Buyers are becoming increasingly knowledgeable and cautious. They are capable of clearly weighing the pros and cons of each project. Factors such as green building standards, eco-friendly urban design and comprehensive infrastructure and amenities are becoming increasingly important. The primary challenge for real estate developers today should not merely be the size of their land fund, but rather the volume of products sold and cash flow generated.

A healthy market cannot be measured solely by the total value of assets held by real estate enterprises. True value must be validated through liquidity. If housing prices continue to outpace income growth and supply remains skewed toward the high-end segment while affordable housing remains scarce, rising inventory levels become an inevitable consequence.

Hiệp said these risks extend beyond real estate enterprises, warning that weak market absorption poses a major challenge, as inventory can trigger credit risks for banks that financed these projects. When products fail to sell, a company’s ability to repay debt and  maintain cash flow is compromised, potentially creating a risk of wider contagion. — BIZHUB/VNS