Workers process coconuts for export at Vina T&T Group. — Photo nhandan.vn

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s agro-forestry-fishery exports reached a record US$70.1 billion in 2025, underscoring the sector’s growing role in the national economy.

However, behind this impressive figure lies a structural vulnerability: many key export commodities are facing unstable raw material supplies, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth in the medium and long term.

According to Secretary General of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association Lê Việt Anh, pepper remained Việt Nam’s leading spice export in 2025, with shipments exceeding 247,000 tonnes, accounting for 59.3 per cent of total spice export volume. Export revenue reached $1.66 billion, out of total spice exports of $2.1 billion.

Yet, Việt Nam also imported more than 42,000 tonnes of pepper worth $266.2 million, up 16.2 per cent in volume and 51.1 per cent in value compared to 2024. While this reflects Việt Nam’s central role in pepper processing and re-export, it also highlights a growing shortfall in domestic supply amid sustained global demand.

Việt Anh warned that the 2026 pepper harvest is expected to face adverse weather conditions and plant diseases, particularly in ageing plantations with limited technical investment. Preliminary assessments suggest output could decline by 15-20 per cent compared to 2025, making it increasingly urgent to maintain and expand supply to meet rising international demand.

Similar challenges persist in the cashew industry, which has long grappled with a severe shortage of raw materials. The Vietnam Cashew Association noted that domestic supply currently meets only just over 10 per cent of demand, forcing the industry to import nearly 90 per cent of raw cashew nuts.

In 2025, Việt Nam’s cashew exports hit a record $5.2 billion, but raw material imports surged to around $4.5 billion. Most imports come from Cambodia and Côte d’Ivoire, both of which are rapidly shifting towards deep processing and gradually reducing exports of raw nuts.

Côte d’Ivoire alone now has 37 processing facilities with a combined designed capacity of about 830,000 tonnes, and it aims to process 50 per cent of its cashew output domestically by 2030 through new investment projects. This trend poses a real risk of supply disruption for Việt Nam’s cashew industry, potentially undermining its competitiveness and its position as the world’s leading cashew exporter.

The coconut sector also posted strong growth in 2025, overtaking dragon fruit to become the second-largest fruit and vegetable export, with revenue rising 36.6 per cent to nearly $534 million.

However, the Vietnam Coconut Association pointed to unstable supply as a key constraint on sustainable development, with some exporters forced to import coconuts to fulfil contracts, eroding profits and, at times, damaging credibility due to delayed deliveries.

The association's Chairwoman Nguyễn Thị Kim Thanh stressed the importance of improving planting materials to enhance productivity and quality. High-quality varieties can reduce pest and disease risks by 40-60 per cent, stabilise yields and lower production costs even amid climate volatility.

She also highlighted the need for sustainable farming practices, integrated pest management and safe plant protection measures to meet growing demand for green, traceable products.

Experience from the pepper, cashew and coconut sectors shows that reliance on domestic raw materials for production is no longer an issue for individual enterprises alone, but a strategic challenge for the entire agricultural sector.

As external supply becomes increasingly volatile, proactive policies are needed, from planning raw material zones and encouraging long-term linkages to supporting credit, investment in varieties, technology and on-site processing. With better control of inputs, Việt Nam’s agricultural exports can strengthen their quality, cost efficiency and global market position. — VNA/VNS