A 10% drop in residential prices is projected for 2020 as the unemployment rate is forecasted to reach 7%; Investment market remains subdued with 50% of deals in Q3 involving PRC buyers

September 08, 2020 - 09:53
A 10% drop in residential prices is projected for 2020 as the unemployment rate is forecasted to reach 7%; Investment market remains subdued with 50% of deals in Q3 involving PRC buyers

  • Residentialtransactions in August fell by 29% m-o-m with RVD home prices edging lower by0.3% m-o-m; another 0.8% m-o-m drop is expected in August.
  • Commercialinvestment market remained subdued in Q3 with totaltransaction volumes falling by 64.3% q-o-q.
  • Hong Kong buyersremain subdued, while PRC activity is expected to be more active than localinvestors.


HONG KONG, CHINA - Media OutReach - 8 September2020 - The downward trend continued in both the residential andinvestment markets in Q3 2020 as the pandemic and continuing geo-politicaluncertainties continued to weigh on sentiment. Despite thechallenges, strong pent-up demand, government policy support, economic stimuluspackages and the low interest rate environment remain favourable factors that,together, may stabilize the market and induce a rebound by the end of Q3.


Residential transactionsdeclined in Q3 by 6% quarter-on-quarter in both primary and secondary salesmarkets but recorded a major increase of 30% when compared with Q3 2019. Whilethis indicates that social and economic factors continue to impact the residentialmarket, the unprecedented owner-occupier demand and anticipation of apost-pandemic recovery can be strong stabilizers. Among individual estates,property prices at Taikoo Shing as of August had fallen their lowest levelsince January 2019 while those in The Harbourside have fallen even further, andare now 10.6% below the previous trough in January 2019. Prices of popularestates are expected to fall further in the near-term.


Mr Alva To, Cushman & Wakefield's Vice President,Greater China & Head of Consulting, Greater China, commented "The secondary sales market has come under severe challengesfrom the pandemic blow. However, a recent decline in new cases coupled withstrong pent-up demand may support a rebound by the end of September 2020. Nonetheless,from a more holistic perspective, with no lasting resolution to either thepandemic or geo-political challenges and with unemployment forecast to reach 7%by year-end, we expect home prices to remain under pressure and likely toconclude the year with an average drop of 10% among popular estates."


The investmentmarket remained subdued in Q3 as local and foreign buyers remained on the sidelines.Year-to-date, a total of 32 major deals (each with a consideration of overHK$100 million) have been recorded, of which just 10 were for commercialproperty. Despite the fall in demand from local buyers, demand from PRC buyersremained relatively stable, resulting in their accounting for half of the dealsconcluded in the quarter. Among sectors, industrial was among the most active,supported by purchases of en-bloc building. In contrast, investment intoretail, one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic, remained muted.


Mr Tom Ko, Cushman & Wakefield's ExecutiveDirector, Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said, "Withdemand for commercial property expected to remain weak in coming months, PRCbuying activity should continue to serve as a stable pillar of demand even asmany local and foreign buyers continue to take a wait-and-see approach. Nonetheless,based on current trends, both the number of transactions and investment volumein 2020 are expected to fall to a 10-year low."


About Cushman & Wakefield

Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leadingglobal real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for realestate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest realestate services firms with approximately 53,000 employees in 400 offices and 60countries. Across Greater China, there are 22 offices servicing the localmarket. The company won four of the top awards in the Euromoney Survey 2017 and2018 in the categories of Overall, Agency Letting/Sales, Valuation and Researchin China. In 2019, the firm had revenue of $8.8 billion across core services ofproperty, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets,valuation and other services. To learn more, visitwww.cushmanwakefield.com.hk or follow us on LinkedIn (

https://www.linkedin.com/company/cushman-&-wakefield-greater-china)


E-paper