More than half of respondents expect further dip in home prices; interest in home ownership stable
HONG KONG, CHINA - Media OutReach - September 24, 2019 - Citi Hong Kong announcedtoday the results of its survey on residential property ownership in Hong Kongfor Q3 2019. According to the survey, more than half of the respondents expectedhome prices in Hong Kong to fall in the next 12 months. The interest inproperty ownership showed negligible changes from the preceding quarter, ofwhich respondents aged under 44 expressed a stronger interest than that of thewhole. The view on whether it is a good time for home purchase was also aboutthe same as the previous quarter.
More than half of respondents expected home price to fall
Results of the latest survey showed more than half of therespondents are expecting home price in Hong Kong to fall in the next 12months, up 28 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the percentage also increased from that of Q1 2019.
How do you think home prices will trend in the next 12 months? | |||||
| Percentage of Respondents | ||||
| Q3 2018 | Q4 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 |
Upward | 38% | 18% | 42% | 36% | 18% |
Flat | 33% | 25% | 35% | 36% | 26% |
Downward | 29% | 57% | 24% | 28% | 56% |
Base: All Respondents
Relatively strongerinterest in home buying among respondents agedunder 44
In Q3 2019, 20% of therespondents expressed a very or rather strong interest currently in purchasinga property at the moment, about the same level asthe preceding quarter. The result showed no significant change despite their views on the property market. 24% of respondents aged21 to 29 shareda very strong or rather strong interest in buying ahome,while such percentage for respondents aged 30 to 44 was 28%, whichwas higher than the overall percentage in Q3 2019. Thefigures indicated a keen interest in residential propertyownership among respondents aged under 44.
How interested are you in purchasing a property now? | |||||
Percentage of Respondents | |||||
| Q3 2018 | Q4 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 |
Very/rather | 21% | 18% | 26% | 25% | 20% |
Neutral | 33% | 33% | 29% | 28% | 29% |
Very/rather | 46% | 49% | 45% | 47% | 51% |
Base: AllRespondents
Respondents'views on the timing of home purchase similar tothat of the previous quarter
Respondents whofelt it is a good/excellent time to purchase a home accounted for 3%. Whilethe percentage of those who felt it is a bad/terrible time fell slightly from 71% in Q2 2019 to 68% in Q3 2019, they remaineda majority.
If you do not own any property now, taking into consideration your current standard of living and family finances, do you think it is a good time to purchase a home now? | |||||
| Percentage of Respondents | ||||
| Q3 2018 | Q4 2018 | Q1 2019 | Q2 2019 | Q3 2019 |
A good/excellent time to purchase | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
Neutral | 24% | 29% | 39% | 27% | 29% |
A bad/terrible time to purchase | 74% | 67% | 57% | 71% | 68% |
Base: All Respondents
Josephine Lee, Head of Retail Bank, Citi HongKong, said, "The results show that many local citizens are expecting a continuous fall in property prices, but the overall interest in property ownership sees no material change despite their viewson the property market, in which respondents aged under 44still express a relatively stronger interest in buying homes. We recommend interested homebuyers to comprehensively assess their financial situation and burden, set a budget according to their financial capacity, and choose a suitablemortgage plan."
Citibank commissioned The University of Hong KongSocial Sciences Research Centre to conduct the survey, interviewing over 500Hong Kong respondents by phone in August 2019. Since 2010, Citibank hasconducted a quarterly survey on the housing market to assess the current stateof homeownership in Hong Kong, track their interest in home purchase and publicexpectations in terms of future housing price trends.
Source: Citibank Q3 2019 Residential PropertyOwnership Survey