A trading day at VNDirect Securities Corporation. The brokerage has forecast Việt Nam will be upgraded to the emerging markets status in 2022. — Photo tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn

HÀ NỘI — It may take Việt Nam two years to get upgraded to emerging market level from the current frontier market classification, VNDirect Securities Corporation said in its 2020 outlook.

The Vietnamese stock market missed the chance in June 2019 as Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) kept Việt Nam at frontier status.

MSCI also did not add Việt Nam to the watchlist for a potential upgrade.

The firm made the decision as Việt Nam fell short in terms of qualitative measures despite meeting all quantitative criteria.

Some qualitative indicators that fall short of expectation were limited openness and unequal treatment of foreign investors regarding foreign ownership limitations, lack of information disclosure in English, lack of an offshore currency market and lack of an independent securities clearing centre.

Approximately US$1 billion worth of foreign capital is expected to flow into Việt Nam’s stock market if it is officially re-classified to emerging markets status from funds that invest in MSCI Emerging Markets Index and FTSE Emerging Markets Index, VNDirect Securities said.

But VNDirect Securities said there are several factors that could change the situation.

Firstly, the amended Law on Securities, which was approved by Việt Nam’s National Assembly on November 26, 2019, will come into effect on January 1, 2021.

Việt Nam has also made changes in the Law on Enterprises and the Law on Investment. The two laws will be brought to the upcoming National Assembly meetings for discussion and approval in June.

“Changes in these laws will contribute to removing the current hurdles to the re-classification of Việt Nam’s stock market, including foreign ownership limitation and equal treatment for foreign investors,” VNDirect Securities said.

The best scenario is the Vietnamese stock market will be added into MSCI’s watchlist for the re-classification at its annual review in June 2021 and the decision will be made in June 2022.

In the near future, despite not being added to the watchlist for re-classification, Việt Nam may still benefit from a larger inflow of foreign capital that targets frontier markets.

That is because MSCI announced in June 2019 that Kuwait will be re-classified as an emerging market in June 2020, which could raise Việt Nam’s weight in MSCI Frontier Markets Index and MSCI Frontier Markets 100 Index to 25.8 per cent and 30 per cent, VNDirect Securities estimated.

As of December 10, 2019, Việt Nam’s weights in the two indices were about 16 per cent and 13 per cent, MSCI data showed.

“If Kuwait gets an official upgrade to EM status, Việt Nam's stock market could enjoy investment inflow of about $200 million from funds that trade in MSCI Frontier Markets.”

Foreign capital inflows will continue to focus on Việt Nam’s large-cap stocks currently in MSCI Frontier Markets Index and MSCI Frontier Markets 100 Index, including dairy producer Vinamilk (VNM), property and industrial group Vingroup (VIC), property firms Vinhomes (VHM), Vincom Retail (VRE) and Novaland (NVL), consumer company Masan (MSN), steel producer Hòa Phát (HPG) and Vietcombank (VCB). — VNS