HÀ NỘI — In a recent report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Việt Nam’s economy to grow by 6.6 per cent this year and by 6.5 per cent in 2019.
Titled “World Economic Outlook, April 2018”, the report predicts that the GDP (gross domestic product) growth of emerging Southeast Asian economies, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Việt Nam, will remain above 5 per cent in 2018 and 2019.
Last year, despite many difficulties, Việt Nam’s GDP expanded by 6.81 per cent, higher than the target set by the National Assembly and the highest in the last decade.
The quality of the country’s economic growth has also improved, with the overall labour productivity gaining some 6 per cent in 2017.
Việt Nam also saw progress in pursuing a new growth model based on productivity and innovation. The country has gradually reduced its reliance on natural resources, particularly crude oil, and shifted its focus to industry, manufacturing, processing and services.
The Vietnamese Government aims for an economic growth of 6.7 per cent and an average inflation rate of 4 per cent this year.
IMF also predicted that the Asian economy will grow at a rate of some 6.5 per cent in 2018-19 and remain the engine of the global economy.
According to the fund, Chinese and Indian economies will increase by 6.6 per cent and 7.4 per cent, respectively, in 2018 while the figures for 2019 will be 6.4 per cent and 7.8 per cent, respectively.
Most economic forecasts since early April said Việt Nam’s GDP growth will be 6.5 per cent or higher this year.
In an annual credit analysis released on April 3, Moody’s Investors Service said Việt Nam’s real GDP growth would remain robust, averaging 6.7 per cent in 2018.
According to the analysis, Việt Nam’s 2018 growth will be supported by domestic consumption and strong investment growth on the back of the public infrastructure development spending.
Moody’s also expects strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to continue to diversify Việt Nam’s economy and strengthen its growth compared to similarly rated peers, thereby supporting stabilisation in the Government’s debt burden.
Meanwhile, World Bank on April 12 predicted Việt Nam’s economic growth to stabilise at some 6.5 per cent in 2018 while inflation is predicted to remain moderate, thanks to a benign global price environment and strong wage growth that may ultimately lift core inflation. External balances are projected to benefit from robust exports and FDI inflows. — VNS