EVN workers inspect a power substation in the northern province of Điện Biên. VNA/VNS Photo

Việt Nam’s power development plan is facing major hurdles, with delays in liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, uncertainties in domestic gas resources, and slow progress in renewable energy investments. These challenges threaten the country’s energy security and its ability to meet ambitious growth and carbon neutrality targets.

To address these issues, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) is seeking experts' opinions to revise the National Power Development Plan for 2021-2030 (PDP VIII). The revisions come as the Southeast Asian country faces challenges in energy security, project delays and the transition to cleaner energy sources.

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyễn Hoàng Long said in a recent workshop the energy sector played an important role in sustaining socio-economic growth, and emphasised the need for a long-term, cohesive strategy.

PDP VIII, approved by the Prime Minister on May 15, 2023, outlined a roadmap to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 while supporting GDP growth of 7 per cent annually through 2030 and 6.5-7.5 per cent from 2031 to 2050. These targets aligned with a resolution approved by the National Assembly in 2023.

Long said despite these ambitious goals, PDP VIII faced obstacles, particularly in liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, with only three out of 13 progressing on schedule. Domestic gas turbine projects, such as Báo Vàng and Cá Voi Xanh, were delayed due to resource uncertainties.

Renewable energy projects struggled with obstacles, including unattractive electricity prices and complex investment processes. Imported gas power projects also required significant capital, advanced technology and long preparation periods.

Previously, the National Assembly’s resolution dated November 30, 2024, called for resuming the Ninh Thuận nuclear power project (which was cancelled in 2016). Meanwhile the Prime Minister’s directive issued on January 3, 2025, sets an economic growth target of over 8 per cent for 2025 and double-digit growth for 2026-2030, driving electricity demand up by 12-16 per cent annually.

Nguyễn Ngọc Hưng, PhD, from the MoIT's Energy Institute said the country's commercial electricity output had grown 1.7 times since 2016, from 158 billion kWh to 276 billion kWh in 2024, averaging 7.2 per cent increase annually. However, this growth rate had slowed to 7.1 per cent between 2021 and 2024, down from 8 per cent from 2016 to 2020. The northern region, driven by industrial and residential demand, had seen particularly high electricity consumption.

A wind power farm in the southern province of Ninh Thuận. VNA/VNS Photo

The Energy Institute proposed four electricity demand scenarios: low, base, high and exceptionally high. In the highest scenario, commercial electricity output could grow by 12.8 per cent annually from 2026 to 2030, 8.6 per cent from 2031 to 2040 and 2.8 per cent from 2041 to 2050, exceeding 430 billion kWh by 2050, with peak demand surpassing 71.5 GW.

Experts have outlined three key areas for PDP VIII's revision, including updating legal frameworks, assessing the power system’s operations and forecasting socio-economic growth and electricity demand.

They stressed the importance of optimising the energy mix, ensuring supply reliability and evaluating hourly operations to integrate more renewable energy. Local assessments of renewable potential and backup solutions for wind and solar power were also recommended.

Despite Việt Nam's installed capacity exceeding demand by 1.5 times in 2023, the northern region has experienced power shortages briefly in recent years. As wind and solar power is projected to account for 60-70 per cent of capacity, backup solutions will be critical for energy security.

The country's power structure has changed significantly. Before 2010, coal-fired and hydroelectric power dominated. From 2011-2019, coal expanded, but recent trends focus on reducing coal dependency and maximising renewable energy. Gas turbines serve as a transitional power source due to their lower emissions and operational flexibility, according to industry experts.

By 2024, Việt Nam's total power capacity reached 80 GW, with electricity output surpassing 300 billion kWh. However, major projects like offshore wind and pumped-storage hydropower have only achieved 19-62 per cent of their targets, creating short-term challenges.

Economists have advised the country to pursue more renewable energy strategies, including developing solar power plants on unused land and converting some forest land to renewable energy projects.

The base scenario estimates Việt Nam's solar power capacity at 295,000MW, while the high scenario forecasts 576,000MW. By 2050, renewable energy is expected to dominate the country's power mix. Achieving this will require transmission expansion, energy storage adoption and flexible power sources to stabilise the system, according to experts. VNS