Workers a garment factory in the southern province of Tây Ninh. — VNA/VNS Photo

HÀ NỘI — Although the Vietnamese economy is maintaining a positive trend, experts held that now is the time to accelerate and make breakthroughs to achieve the targets set for 2026.

Possitive growth trend so far

The economy’s positive trend has once again been reflected in a range of macroeconomic indicators for August and the first eight months of 2026.

State budget revenue in the eight-month period was estimated at VNĐ2.03 quadrillion (nearly US$78 billion), equivalent to 80.2 per cent of the annual target and up 16.2 per cent. Public investment disbursement reached VNĐ509.6 trillion, or 49.8 per cent of the plan, up VNĐ100.4 trillion in absolute terms and 3.5 percentage points in rate compared with the same period last year.

Another notable figure was registered foreign investment, which stood at about VNĐ40.63 billion in the eight-month period, up 55.4 per cent. Disbursed foreign investment reached an estimated VNĐ17.25 billion, the highest eight-month level in five years and up 12 per cent year-on-year.

Meanwhile, total import–export turnover reached VNĐ770.14 billion, up 28.7 per cent year-on-year.

The figures were reported by the Ministry of Finance at the Government’s regular meeting for August 2026.

Deputy Minister of Finance Trần Quốc Phương said agricultural, forestry and fishery production remained broadly stable, while the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 14.4 per cent in August and 11.9 per cent in the first eight months compared to a year earlier.

In its release of Việt Nam’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August 2026, which rose to 53.3 points from 52.9 points in July and remained above the 50-point threshold for the 14th consecutive month, S&P Global highlighted strong increases in both output and new orders, driven by new product development and improving customer demand.

Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue went up 14.9 per cent in August and 13.3 per cent in the first eight months, equivalent to the full-year target of 13–15 per cent.

The number of international visitors reached 1.99 million in August, up 18.4 per cent year-on-year, bringing the total for the first eight months to 15.9 million, up 14.4 per cent.

Meanwhile, 206,400 firms entered and re-entered the market in the first eight months, raising the number of active businesses to around 1.08 million as of the end of August, up 5.63 per cent from the end of 2025.

More momentum needed for year-end race

The above indicators show that growth momentum continues to strengthen, but the final four months of the year will be a challenging sprint. 

The Ministry of Finance has reported to the Government preliminary forecasts on the likelihood of achieving the full-year targets.

Of the 15 socio-economic development targets set for 2026, nine are forecast to be achieved or exceeded, while one, the rate of multidimensional household poverty reduction, is forecast to fall short.

The remaining five targets are subject to efforts to achieve them. All five are key economic targets, including GDP growth, per capita GDP, the share of the processing and manufacturing industry in GDP, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expansion and labour productivity growth.

To promote growth, Prime Minister Lê Minh Hưng has asked ministries, sectors and localities to regularly review and update their growth scenarios on a monthly and quarterly basis, while proactively identifying bottlenecks affecting growth targets and focusing on removing them, particularly in sectors and localities that serve as growth drivers and still have significant room for expansion.

In 2026, the Government set a double-digit growth target, striving for GDP growth of at least 10 per cent, along with CPI growth kept at 4.5 per cent. However, with GDP growth standing at 8.18 per cent in the first six months and average CPI pace reaching 4.45 per cent in the first eight months, already close to the 4.5 per cent ceiling, Việt Nam will have to make substantial efforts in the remaining months of the year to achieve its targets.

Speaking at the Government’s August meeting, Phương said there is very little room for macroeconomic policy governance and that achieving the growth target is facing considerable pressure.

Meanwhile, to achieve full-year GDP growth of 10 per cent, the Ministry of Finance estimated that GDP growth in the second half of the year will have to reach 11.7 per cent. However, the current global and domestic context shows that considerable difficulties remain.

Although imports and exports have continued to grow strongly, trade deficit remains large, reaching $20.46 billion in the first eight months. Moreover, exports of several key products, including textiles and garments, footwear, wood products and toys, as well as some agricultural products such as cashew nuts and coffee, have either declined or recorded slow growth.

Public investment disbursement has also fallen short of expectations. Six ministries and sectors have disbursed less than 10 per cent of their allocated funds or have yet to disburse any, while 14 major transport projects have disbursed less than 5 per cent.

Traditional growth drivers are facing difficulties, which could affect overall economic expansion at a time when new growth drivers have yet to fully realise their potential.

Nevertheless, despite acknowledging the considerable pressure on the realisation of the double-digit growth target, the Ministry of Finance has continued to call on ministries, sectors and localities to resolutely and effectively implement the resolutions, conclusions and directions issued by the Party, National Assembly, Government and Prime Minister.

It has also called for steadfast efforts to achieve double-digit growth in 2026, maintain macroeconomic stability and keep inflation at around 4.5 per cent.

In his remarks at the Government’s August meeting, PM Hưng stressed that this is the time to "accelerate and make breakthroughs", with the strongest possible determination to achieve the set targets.

To build momentum for the year-end race, one of the top priorities is to accelerate public investment disbursement, ensuring 100 per cent of the allocated plan is disbursed without allowing funds to be concentrated in the final months of the year.

At the same time, the monetary policy should be governed flexibly, with credit directed towards production, exports and priority sectors and projects that serve as growth drivers. Efforts should also continue to remove difficulties facing production and business activities and long-delayed projects, while further improving the investment and business environment, institutions and policies. — VNA/VNS