Civil unrest stalling Hong Kong’s housing market over the coming year

September 19, 2019 - 04:15
Civil unrest stalling Hong Kong’s housing market over the coming year

RICS-Spacious report indicates continuous decline in prices, sales volumes and rents

 

HONG KONG, CHINA - Media OutReach- 19 September 2019 - Amidst trade tensionsbetween China and the U.S., Hong Kong's political unrest has continued todampen market sentiment. According to the newly published RICS-Spacious HongKong Residential Market Survey, Confidence Index continues to fall from -54 inJuly to -76 in August.

 

The survey also indicates that both buyer andrental demands have reported significant deterioration, with rental demand recordingits first negative reading in the survey's history.

 

During the most intense period of protests,nearly 70% of respondents have cited some degree of price decline over the pastthree months. Prices, sales volumes and rents are expected to dwindle in thenear-term.

 

Aggregate prices are expected to fall 4.6%across Hong Kong, sales volumes are seen slipping 5.3% and rents 2.5%. Themarket outlook prediction seems to be a significant reversal since June, wheresurvey contributors anticipated an increase on all three of these metrics.

 

"Participants also commented that a cessationof the protests appears to be unlikely in the near-term, which contributed tothe more subdued medium-term outlook for the market", said the report's authorSean Ellison, RICS Senior Economist for Asia-Pacific. Ellison also states that"some survey respondents cited tariff escalation between China and the U.S. asa headwind, the ongoing political unrest continues to be the main catalystcited as driving market pessimism."

 

Although the current market sentiment issimilar to when trade tensions escalated and when interest rates were expectedto increase in October 2018 and February 2016 reports respectively, a clearresolution to the city's unrest is proving to be elusive.


The RICS-Spacious Hong Kong ResidentialProperty Monitor is a monthly sentiment index tracking trends in the commercialproperty market. It is a leading indicator for global investment and occupiermarkets. The full report is available at www.rics.org/economics.


About RICS

Confidence through Professional Standards

 

RICS promotes and enforces the highest professionalqualifications and standards in the development and management of land, realestate, construction and infrastructure.Our name promises the consistent delivery of standards -- bringing confidence tothe markets we serve.

 

We accredit 125,000professionals and any individual or firm registered with RICS is subject to ourquality assurance. Their expertise covers property, asset valuation, realestate management; the development of infrastructure; and the management ofnatural resources, such as mining, farms andwoodland. From environmental assessments and building controls to negotiatingland rights in an emerging economy; if our members are involved the sameprofessional standards and ethics apply.

 

We believe that standardsunderpin effective markets. With up toseventy per cent of the world's wealthbound up in land and real estate, our sector is vital to economic development,helping to support stable, sustainable investment and growth around the globe.

 

With offices covering the major political and financial centres of the world, our market presence meanswe are ideally placed to influence policy and embed professional standards. Wework at a cross-governmental level, delivering international standards thatwill support a safe and vibrant marketplace in land,real estate, construction andinfrastructure, for the benefit of all.

 

We are proud of our reputationand work hard to protect it, so clients who work with an RICS professional can have confidence in the quality and ethicsof the services they receive.


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