People shop at Aeon Mall Long Biên, Hà Nội. — VNA/VNS Photo Trần Việt
HÀ NỘI — Although many forecasts said that inflation would be controlled at less than four per cent this year, economists recommended it was still important to pay attention to inflationary pressures.
A representative of the Price Management Department under the Ministry of Finance said that in addition to the impact of developments in the world market, the pressure to increase domestic prices also came from the continued price adjustments of some public services according to the market roadmap.
In the context of many uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was difficult for the aggregate demand of the economy to recover, said the representative.
In particular, the business situation in some areas such as accommodation, tourism, entertainment and aviation was forecasted to face many difficulties, therefore,l the price of essential goods was not expected to change.
Nguyễn Anh Tuấn, director of the Price Management Department, said that the department had built and set up a price management scenario for this year, closely following the target of controlling inflation below four per cent of the National Assembly.
It was difficult to predict prices of commodities this year, so the Price Management Department would continue to work closely with ministries, agencies and localities to drastically and effectively implement the public management, administration and price stabilisation under market mechanisms to control inflation according to set targets, said Tuấn.
At the same time, it would continue to implement the market price roadmap for public services and essential goods.
The leader of the Price Management Department also said they would proactively forecast, calculate and build scenarios to control prices of essential commodities this year according to the market roadmap to ensure inflation control; increase inspections; promote communication and publicity of price information, to control inflation; limit false information, causing confusion for consumers and market instability.
Economist Cấn Văn Lực said this year had a number of factors that could significantly push up inflationary pressures.
The first was the strong recovery of the global economy in general and of Việt Nam in particular on this year's low growth. When the economy recovered, the demand for goods and services would increase, thereby pushing up the price.
In addition, the amount of money that countries and central banks pumped out to prevent the pandemic, support major economic recovery, or continue to loosen monetary policies, and reduce interest rates would have a stronger impact next year, making global inflation increase.
In addition, forecasts all showed that prices of basic commodities, including oil prices, continue to increase again, although the increase was not large, it still created additional pressure.
Meanwhile, the domestic roadmap to increase the prices of some goods and services managed by the State would also affect the consumer price index.
“Inflationary pressure will be significantly higher this year. However, we forecast inflation will remain under control at less than four per cent, specifically in the range of 3.7-3.9 per cent, which means we also do not worry that inflation will emerge again," Lực told vov.vn online newspaper.
Lực recommended that there should be co-ordination between fiscal and monetary policy, including price control. Besides, it was necessary to consider delaying the roadmap for increasing prices of some goods managed by the State if the inflationary pressure was greater.
In the short term, in order to keep the market price from strong fluctuations in the first month of the year, the peak month before the Lunar New Year, it was necessary to strongly engage ministries, branches and localities in management and price stabilisation, especially for essential goods, he said. — VNS