HÀ NỘI – Shares are likely to rise slightly this week on the forecast that investor confidence will pick up on positive macroeconomic signals and sustained foreign investment.

The benchmark VN Index on the HCM Stock Exchange was down 0.4 per cent to close Friday at 738.81 points, posting a weekly loss of 0.6 per cent.

The HNX Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange had made a three-day rally of total 1.2 per cent to record a weekly gain of 0.7 per cent, ending last week at 94.36 points.

Market trading liquidity improved from the previous week with more than 278.6 million shares being traded in each session, worth VNĐ5.46 trillion (US$242.8 million).

The figures increased by 44.5 per cent in trading volume and 82 per cent in trading value, compared with the previous week.

The VN Index declined for the first time after five consecutive weeks, as selling of large-cap stocks rose strongly after the benchmark had continuously touched its nine-year highs.

Investor selling focussed on leading sectors, such as banks and energy firms, pulling down stocks in those sectors and triggering the decline of the stock market.

While bank stocks suffered from their previous week’s rally, shares of energy companies were hit by sliding oil prices.

Global benchmark Brent crude finished Friday trading at near $50 per barrel, totalling a weekly loss of 4.2 per cent.

However, the stock market has shown signs of improvement as foreign investment remained positive and investor confidence would turn positive on the prospects of the macro-economy.

According to Nguyễn Việt Đức, senior analyst at MB Securities Company (MBS), the stock market had reached its short-term balance point at 735 points, as strong selling from domestic investors had been absorbed by foreign investment.

“That should encourage investors to stick around in the market,” Đức said.

Foreign investors remained as net buyers last week on both HCM and Hà Nội stock exchanges, with a total net buy value of VNĐ590 billion.

"A stable foreign investment in the securities market means foreign investors are counting on the prospects of Việt Nam’s economic growth and the chance of the country’s stock market being watch-listed by the market-watch firm MSCI, before it becomes an emerging market," he added.

"With a price per earnings ratio of only 15, Vietnamese stock market is offering huge potential to foreign investors, especially large-cap companies," Đức said.

According to  a few brokerages and analysts, there will be lots of opportunities for investors in shares of securities firms and property developers.

While shares of securities companies will be supported by rising market trading liquidity and the coming derivatives market, real-estate firms will benefit from rising prices and liquidity of the real-estate market, as well as increases in their business performances.

Some other factors that could affect the stock market include the National Assembly’s resolution on supporting banks and credit institutions to handle their non-performing loans and business deals between Vietnamese and US firms, which would be announced soon. – VNS