A motorcycle showroom in Hà Nội. — VNA/VNS Photo

HÀ NỘI — The domestic motorcycle market is on track for a strong finish to 2026, as domestic production rises sharply, but manufacturers face an increasingly saturated market and growing pressure to shift toward electric and higher-value models.

Domestic motorcycle output was estimated at 353,000 units in September, up 13 per cent from August and 38 per cent from a year earlier, according to data from the Ministry of Finance's National Statistics Office.

Production surpassed 3.13 million units in the first nine months of 2026, up 28 per cent from the same period last year, putting the market on track to exceed the 3.4 million units produced in all of 2025.

Output fell to 224,700 units in February during the Lunar New Year holiday before recovering to 366,100 units in March and peaking at 381,800 units in April. Production remained above 368,000 units in May and June before easing to 313,400 units in August.

Industry insiders said the September rebound reflected manufacturers' efforts to replenish dealership inventories ahead of the year-end shopping season, when motorcycle demand typically picks up.

However, the rise in production does not necessarily signal a sustained increase in first-time motorcycle purchases, as ownership levels in major urban centres are already high, they said. 

The competitive landscape is also changing rapidly as electric motorcycles gain ground. The traditional market has long been dominated by members of the Vietnam Association of Motorcycle Manufacturers, including Honda, Yamaha, Piaggio, Suzuki and SYM.

But domestic and foreign electric motorcycle makers, including VinFast, Selex Motors, Yadea, Pega and Dat Bike are expanding their presence with new models, distribution networks, charging infrastructure and battery-swapping systems.

The shift is forcing established gasoline-powered motorcycle manufacturers to accelerate their electrification strategies as the gaps in price and performance between electric and conventional motorcycles narrow.

For the remainder of 2026 and beyond, manufacturers are expected to focus on three areas: premium models equipped with features such as anti-lock braking systems and smartphone connectivity; specialised vehicles for urban logistics and last-mile delivery; and electric models positioned to benefit from stricter urban emissions policies.

The motorcycle market is projected to reach US$4.64 billion by 2030, up from $3.89 billion in 2025, while sales volume is expected to rise to 3.85 million units from 3.12 million, according to Marqstats, an Indian data solutions provider focused primarily on the automotive industry.

Electric motorcycle sales are projected to reach 2.15 million units by 2030, accounting for 55.84 per cent of the market, Marqstats said. That represents a compound annual growth rate of 33.8 per cent and would make Việt Nam the first market in the region where electric motorcycles outsell petrol-powered models.

Petrol-powered motorcycle sales are projected to fall from 2.62 million units to 1.7 million by 2030, a compound annual decline of 8.25 per cent. — VNS