Japanese trade outlook remains stable for Q2 2019

April, 08/2019 - 07:04
Japanese trade outlook remains stable for Q2 2019

  • Exports of Land Vehicles & Parts, CapitalEquipment & Machinery and Industrial Raw Materials drive Japan's air tradegrowth
  • IndustrialRaw Materials contribute to robust ocean trade despite moderate reduction in growthpace


TOKYO, JAPAN - Media OutReach - 8 April 2019Air exports of Land Vehicles& Parts, Capital Equipment & Machinery and Industrial Raw Materialswill be the main contributor to sustained trade growth in Japan, according todata from the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL, the world's leadinglogistics company.


The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an earlyindicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligenceand Big Data, shows that Japan's trade growth is revealing a slight downwardtrend with an overall index of 57 points, two points below last quarter.However, the climate remains positive as the country's highest-growth sectors --Land Vehicles & Parts as well as Capital Equipment & Machinery -- areset to drive up volumes in Japanese air exports in the coming quarter. Imports fromboth air and ocean shipments are also expected to bloom, especially withsectors like Consumer Fashion Goods and Personal Household Goods.


"While growth is moderately reducing in pace,Japan is still a very stable and mature economy with a balanced import-exportmarket," said Charles Kaufmann, CEO North Asia South Pacific, DHL GlobalForwarding. "This quarter's results reveal an interesting shift towards higherdomestic consumption, the result of a planned sales tax hike in October toprotect the country's growth momentum."[1]A slight decrease in automobile exports via ocean shipments also suggest changingconsumer habits globally with regards to ride-sharing and car ownership,especially amongst the young.[2]Nevertheless, Japan's economic growth is projected to accelerate this year dueto solid investment in infrastructure related to the Rugby World Cup in thelater part of 2019 and the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games,[3]evident in the robust trade of Basic and Industrial Raw Materials. In a climate typified byuncertainty in trade terms, Japan's moderate but consistent economic growthcontinues to signal positivity for businesses."


The Barometer's results also suggest that globaltrade growth looks set to slow down over the next three months, signaling onlya slight growth. However, the top three nations with the highest indexes arelocated in Asia, namely India, Japan, and China. Indices for all sevencountries that constitute the Global Trade Barometer index -- including the US,UK and Germany -- are above 50 points except for South Korea. In the GlobalTrade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth,while values below 50 indicate contraction.


Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global TradeBarometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state andfuture development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logisticsdata that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. In order tomake this valuable data accessible for academic research and to increase themacroeconomic significance of the indicator, DHL recently entered into researchcooperation with Eswar S. Prasad, Professor of Trade Policy and Economics atCornell University in Ithaca, NY, USA. The indicator is published four times ayear and the next release date is scheduled for June 2019.


You can find the press release for download aswell as further information on dpdhl.com/pressreleases


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