• Ocean trade surpasses air trade for Basic RawMaterials and Chemical Products
• Thecountry with the highest growth prospect in 2018 will build on domestic demandand materials exports to sustain trade over the next quarter

SEOUL,KOREA - Media OutReach - 8 April 2019 - SouthKorea's ocean trade is set to surpass its air trade over the next three months,keeping the country's trade volumes stable amidst short-term volatility,according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL, theworld's leading logistics company.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an earlyindicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligenceand Big Data, revealed that South Korea's trade outlook is set to decelerate to49 points, below the threshold of 50 which indicates growth. Air imports,however, will be sustained by domestic demand for Machinery Parts andTemperature or Climate Controlled Goods, while air exports will maintain astrong foundation thanks to overseas demand for Basic Raw Materials. Theoutlook is more positive for ocean shipments, where trade in Basic RawMaterials remains robust while imports of Personal & Household Goods areforecasted to flourish.

"With semiconductor prices falling and SouthKorea's GDP growth steadying to 2.5% this year,[1]the results of this quarter's index are not unexpected," said SP Song, ManagingDirector, DHL Global Forwarding Korea. "However, losses in semiconductor andcomponents manufacturing have been offset by gains in industries like gamemakers, cosmetics firms, and retailers, with South Korean stocks recentlyrebounding amidst lingering growth concerns.[2]This suggests that pessimism surrounding the country's economic situation mayhave prematurely assumed the worst, with the macro factors dampening SouthKorea's trade balances also unlikely to extend beyond the short term."

The Barometer's results also suggest that globaltrade growth looks set to slow down over the next three months, signaling onlya slight growth. However, the top three nations with the highest indexes are allin Asia, namely India, Japan, and China. Indices for all seven countries thatconstitute the Global Trade Barometer index -- including the US, UK and Germany-- are above 50 points except for South Korea. In the Global Trade Barometermethodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while valuesbelow 50 indicate contraction.

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global TradeBarometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state andfuture development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logisticsdata that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. In order to makethis valuable data accessible for academic research and to increase themacroeconomic significance of the indicator, DHL recently entered into researchcooperation with Eswar S. Prasad, Professor of Trade Policy and Economics atCornell University in Ithaca, NY, USA. The indicator is published four times ayear and the next release date is scheduled for June 2019.

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