HÀ NỘI — The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is expected to help raise Việt Nam’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.3 per cent, according to an official from the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI). 

The number may amount to 2.1 per cent if there are more open policies for services, Trần Toàn Thắng, director of the National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast (NICF)’s World Economy Department, said in an interview with the Vietnam News Agency. 

Under the agreement, Việt Nam will find it easier to access markets with lower tariffs as well as markets with which Việt Nam has yet to sign free trade agreements like Canada, Mexico and Peru, he said. 

Thắng cited NICF’s forecast that exports will rise by about four per cent while imports will expand close to 3.8 per cent.

He said garment-textile and leather-footwear will benefit most from the deal, with export of the garment-textile sector projected to increase by between 8.3 and 10.8 per cent as the result of price competition.

The agreement will also help light and labour-intensive industries grow 4-5 per cent, and their exports climb 8.7-9.6 per cent, Thắng added. 

Moreover, the inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Việt Nam will spur the development of the support industry in the country, thus reducing its trade deficit with China.

On the contrary, due to impacts of the CPTPP, sectors such as animal husbandry, food processing and insurance services may grow slowly, he said, noting that with its weak competitiveness, the animal husbandry sector will be affected most. 

The agreement will lead to fierce competition at home and in other member countries at the levels of product, business and country, Thắng said, suggesting firms learn more about the deal to optimise its advantages. If domestic enterprises fail to bring into full play export opportunities, they will suffer from adverse impacts, he said. 

The 11-member CPTPP officially came into force on December 30, 2018. It will cut tariffs on agricultural and industrial products, ease investment regulations and enhance protection of intellectual property.

It is one of the most comprehensive trade deals ever concluded and strips 98 per cent of tariffs for the 11 member countries with a combined GDP of more than US$13.5 trillion and close to 500 million consumers. The agreement is expected to promote economic growth and poverty reduction, create more jobs and improve the living condition for the member nations. 

The trade deal was signed by 11 member states, namely Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Việt Nam in Santiago in March 2018. — VNS