An investor monitors the stock market. — Photo vietnamplus.vn

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s stock market will begin the new trading week on a cautious note, having failed to breach the short-term resistance level of 1,325 points and reverting to a corrective trend in the last session.

In the absence of short-term supportive news and under pressure from geopolitical factors, the VN-Index is likely to continue testing the key support area around 1,300 points this week.

Analysts at SHS Research noted that the 1,300-point mark remains a crucial psychological level. Should the index lose this support, the next possible stop could be around 1,270 points — the accumulation base established in April. Conversely, only a clear break back above 1,325 points, which aligns with the 20-day moving average, could signal a short-term recovery phase.

At the end of last week, the VN-Index posted a modest decline of 1.08 per cent to 1,315.49 points. Most notably, Friday's session saw a resurgence of selling pressure after the index failed to overcome the 1,325-point resistance zone, erasing the gains made earlier in the week.

The VN30 Index — representing large-cap stocks — also fell by 1.25 per cent, retreating to levels seen in March and confirming a retest of a previous resistance area.

Market liquidity declined significantly, with trading volume on the HoSE dropping 12.8 per cent compared to the previous week. According to analysts, this reflects a shift in investor sentiment towards risk aversion, particularly as the market lacks short-term catalysts and faces external uncertainties, such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing global trade negotiations.

Capital flows showed strong sectoral divergence. Stocks in oil and gas, fertilisers and chemicals, retail and a few banking shares received positive technical support, driven by industry-specific developments. In contrast, real estate, securities, industrial zones and port stocks continued to face correction pressure following previous sharp rallies.

Foreign investors net bought nearly VNĐ347 billion on the HoSE last week. In the final session, buying was concentrated in CTG and NVL, while VIX, FPT and SHB were among the top sold stocks.

Phan Tấn Nhật, head of research at Saigon – Hanoi Securities (SHS), noted that the VN-Index is concluding its short-term recovery phase. The index is expected to enter an accumulation period, awaiting updates on corporate fundamentals.

Based on this outlook, Nhật suggested that the VN-Index would remain under corrective pressure around the 1,300-point zone and would only show clearer improvement once it breaks through the resistance at 1,325 points, which corresponds to the 20-day average.

A key risk factor highlighted by Nhật is the international context. June is seen as a complex month due to the final stages of trade negotiations and the potential for new tariffs imposed between the US and Việt Nam. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also intensifying.  

These factors may undermine investor confidence and prompt risk-averse behaviour, especially for speculative stocks such as financial services and real estate, which had previously experienced sharp gains. — VNS