Customers conduct transactions at Bảo Việt Securities Company. — Photo baotintuc.vn

HÀ NỘI — The stock market has shown resilience and growth momentum, with the VN-Index inching closer to the key resistance level of 1,300 points. Strong macroeconomic factors and positive corporate earnings suggest that a breakout could be imminent.

Despite fluctuations over the past week, the VN-Index managed to sustain its uptrend but has yet to decisively break through the 1,280- to 1,300-point resistance zone.

By the end of the second trading week in February, the VN-Index closed at 1,276.08 points, up 0.07 per cent, while the HNX-Index settled at 231.22 points, gaining 0.75 per cent.

According to Phan Tấn Nhật, Head of Analysis at Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS), the market has now experienced four consecutive weeks of gains, rebounding from the 1,220-point level. At the start of the week, selling pressure mounted amid concerns over US steel tariffs, but the market quickly recovered at the 1,260-point support level.

By the end of the week, market sentiment improved significantly as reports emerged of US-Russia negotiations over the Ukraine conflict and indications that the US had not yet implemented countervailing duties.

Nhật highlighted that most sectors performed positively, except for information technology and consumer services, while telecommunications, mining, rubber, textiles and oil and gas stood out. Market liquidity also continued to improve, signalling renewed investor confidence.

However, foreign investors extended their selling streak, offloading VNĐ1.8 trillion (US$70.9 million) worth of shares on the HoSE during the week.

From a technical perspective, Nhật believes that the VN-Index is consolidating around the 1,260-point level, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. The index has now returned to the 1,280-1,300 range, the upper boundary of the medium-term consolidation channel (1,200-1,300) that has persisted since 2024.

Đinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy at VNDIRECT, pointed to significant improvements in corporate earnings, further strengthening market fundamentals. According to VNDIRECT’s estimates, Q4 2024 net profits of companies listed across the three exchanges grew by 27.8 per cent year-on-year, while full-year net profits for 2024 increased by 17.6 per cent.

Hinh also noted that the State Bank of Việt Nam (SBV) has adjusted its US dollar intervention rate from VNĐ25,450 to VNĐ25,698, gradually raising the central exchange rate. This move reflects SBV’s priority on economic growth and credit expansion, which is particularly beneficial for banking stocks and the broader stock market.

Furthermore, a stabilising US dollar index (DXY) has helped ease pressure on the Vietnamese đồng, creating a more favourable environment for market growth.

With corporate earnings improving, liquidity showing signs of recovery and macro policies supporting growth, market analysts are optimistic that the VN-Index could soon break through the 1,300-point threshold. — VNS