HÀ NỘI — The country’s economic growth rate in the first quarter of this year is expected to reach 6.23 per cent.

This is a strong increase compared to 5.15 per cent in the corresponding period last year.

The forecast has been made by the National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecast (NCIF) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment. NCIF attributed the strong growth to the good performance of the construction and industry sectors.

These two sectors are likely to continue to grow by 6.87 per cent, thanks to the processing industry still maintaining the trend that has prevailed since the end of last year.

Đặng Đức Anh, head of NCIF’s Analysis and Forecast Division, said the outstanding performance of the processing and manufacturing industry was evident from the growth rate of 17 per cent in the first two months of the year and was the main factor contributing to the economic growth in the first quarter.

NCIF experts also predicted that the first three months of the year would see progress in economic indicators following the positive trends of several year-end months, thanks to the expansion of production and business in the manufacturing, construction, trade, wholesale, retail, banking and tourism sectors.

The services sector is also predicted to grow by 6.74 per cent during the period. However, inflation will likely post a hike of 3.1 per cent.

NCIF expects the GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate in the whole year to reach 6.83 per cent, 0.12 percentage points higher than the scenario predicted in December 2017.

The figure is reachable if the Government’s policies issued in 2017 to tackle difficulties for enterprises are implemented drastically and thoroughly this year, according to NCIF.

Three considerable factors that will likely have positive influence on the economic growth in the coming quarters include the Government’s efforts to improve the business climate, its determination to stabilise macro-economic policies and the effects of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership, to which Việt Nam is a signatory.

These factors are believed to consolidate the confidence of local and foreign businesses, thereby helping draw more direct and indirect capital flows to the economy, which is expected to have a spill-over effect on trade and investment. — VNS