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Customs trade hits $1.05 billion on first day of new model
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- Hong Kong ranks seventh in total trade value in 2024, with a total of US$1.3 trillion
- The city grabs the sixth spot globally in terms of trade volume change, amounting to US$212.7 billion, from 2024 to 2029
The report also indicates two dimensions of forecast trade growth: speed, which captures how fast a market's trade volume is expanding; and scale, which tracks the absolute change in the amount of goods traded by a market. Hong Kong has secured the sixth spot globally on the scale dimension – amounting to US$212.7 billion, from 2024 to 2029, together with other growing Asian markets, such as India and Vietnam. Hong Kong is forecast to maintain a 3.1% compound annual trade volume growth rate over the 2024 – 2029 period.
According to the report, Hong Kong's top export destination from 2018 to 2023 was mainland China (57 percent), followed by the United States (6.8 percent) and India (3.1 percent). Meanwhile, nearly half of the city's import within the same period came from mainland China (43 percent). Eight out of the top ten of Hong Kong's export and import destinations from 2018 to 2023 were within Asia or in the Middle East.
"Hong Kong, recognized as a leading international financial and trade hub, has demonstrated strength in both trade value and volume," said Andy Chiang, Senior Vice President and Managing Director - Hong Kong and Macau, DHL Express. "As trade within Asia increases, Hong Kong serves as a vital gateway between mainland China and the rest of the world, maintaining strong connections with its Asian counterparts. We are well-positioned to meet the rising trade demand through recent strategic investments, including the inauguration of our Hong Kong West Service Center, the expansion of the Central Asia Hub at Hong Kong International Airport, and new direct flights from Hong Kong to Jakarta and Sydney. These initiatives will enable us to better serve our customers and capitalize on the growing opportunities in the region."
Key Takeaways: Unveiling Growth, Transformative Shifts, and the Impact of Trade Policies
The DHL Trade Atlas measures changes in countries' and regions' shares of world trade. Among the key take-aways:
- Faster trade growth, greater uncertainty: Recent forecasts predict global goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029. This roughly aligns with GDP growth and represents modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade. However, record high uncertainty about future trade policies clouds the outlook.
- Trump tariff impact: Even if the new U.S. administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – but at a much slower pace.
- Made-in-China content finding new routes to U.S.: Direct U.S.–China trade has fallen from 3.5% of world trade in 2016 to 2.6% over the first nine months of 2024. However, U.S. reliance on made-in-China content has not declined substantially. U.S. imports from other countries contain more inputs from China, and U.S. direct imports from China may be underreported.
- New record in long-distance trade as Asia becomes central to global production networks: Contrary to predictions that recent disruptions would lead to more regionalized trade patterns, trade took place over the longest average distance on record during the first nine months of 2024 (5,000 km). The share taking place inside major geographic regions declined to a new low (51%). This development can be attributed to the fact that Europe and North America have increasingly traded with Asia, as "Factory Asia" becomes central to global production networks.
- New leaders in trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines: Between 2024 and 2029, these four countries are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of trade growth. India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind China (12%) and the United States (10%).
- Global geopolitical shifts limited: Geopolitically driven shifts in global trade patterns remain limited and appear to have stalled in 2024. While trade between blocs of close allies declined relative to trade within these blocs in 2022 and 2023, there were no further declines over the first nine months of 2024.
- Standout regions: At the level of major world regions, the fastest trade volume growth from 2024 to 2029 is forecast for South & Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the ASEAN countries – with compound annual growth rates between 5% and 6%. All other regions are forecast to grow at rates of 2% to 4%.
Reasons for optimism in the face of U.S. policy shifts
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 outlines several reasons for optimism about the future of global trade despite a turn toward more restrictive U.S. trade policies. Most countries continue to pursue trade as a key economic opportunity, and U.S. trade barriers could strengthen ties among other countries. Also, many of Trump's tariff threats may end up different than originally proposed or delayed to prevent a spike in domestic inflation. Moreover, the U.S. share of world imports currently stands at 13%, and its share of exports is 9% – enough for U.S. policies to have substantial effects on other countries but not enough to unilaterally determine the future of global trade.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 features a wealth of data-driven insights and analysis on global trade and its prospects. It is an up-to-date resource for business leaders, policymakers, educators, students, media, and the interested public. It includes concise one-page profiles summarizing the trade patterns of nearly 200 countries and territories that comprise over 99% of world trade, GDP, and population.
The free interactive content available at dhl.com/tradeatlas is a new feature of the report. The website enables users to customize analyses and explore trade trends by specific countries, regions, and categories of goods. Additionally, it offers convenient options for downloading data and images.
The report was commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business. It was finalized in February 2025 using data and forecast updates through January 2025.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 is available at dhl.com/tradeatlas.
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