Cấn Văn Lực, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Advisory Council, speaks at the Vietnam Economic Forum 2024 on Thursday. — VNA/VNS Photo

HCM CITY — Việt Nam’s economy is expected to exceed 7 per cent growth this year and continue rising next year, despite uncertainties from a potential second Trump presidency and global economic challenges, experts said.

Speaking at Vietnam Economic Forum 2024 on Thursday, Cấn Văn Lực, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Advisory Council, said that while the international economic environment poses significant hurdles, Việt Nam’s growth story will continue beyond this year and next.

"Việt Nam is at a key juncture that requires significant reforms to achieve its goal of becoming a developed nation by 2050," he said.

With a strategic location, a young workforce and a growing middle class, the nation has the potential to not only navigate current challenges but to thrive through innovation and reform, he added.

Đỗ Ngọc Hùng, trade counselor and head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US, who spoke via an online platform from the US, said the second term of President Donald Trump is expected to have substantial implications for both the global economy and Việt Nam.

This is particularly relevant in light of possible changes to US trade policies, which could negatively impact Việt Nam’s export-oriented economy, he noted.

He also warned about the possibility of increased US trade investigations.

While the US is contemplating the imposition of a 10 per cent tariff on imports, Hùng said its impact on Vietnamese enterprises is expected to be minimal.

Dr. Trần Đình Thiên, former director of the Việt Nam Institute of Economics, said the Vietnamese government is strongly committed to improving its business climate and streamlining administrative reforms to attract foreign direct investment (FDI).

The commitment has been reflected in initiatives aiming to establish a transparent regulatory framework and to enhance infrastructure, he said.

Việt Nam has also made significant progress in diversifying its trade partnerships, thereby reducing its reliance on traditional markets, he added.

Speakers at the Vietnam Economic Forum 2024 on Thursday. — VNA/VNS Photo

Recommendations

Hùng, the trade counsellor and head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US, recommended that Vietnamese businesses closely monitor the origins of their products and streamline production costs in order to enhance competitiveness.

He also said that many countries are employing legal experts to advocate for favourable policies and to mitigate potential risks.

He noted the importance of engaging in discussions regarding equitable taxation and addressing Việt Nam’s trade deficit with the US, where it currently ranks third (after China and Mexico).

He recommended Việt Nam consider increasing imports of raw materials and high-tech products as a strategy to achieve a more balanced trade position.

Experts recommended Việt Nam continue to enhance its business climate and increase investments in technology and education to cultivate a more innovative economy.

Businesses are advised to leverage supportive policies related to taxation, fees, and interest rates, restructure their operations and manage financial risks and cash flow.

They should anticipate technological advancements, particularly in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), automation, and cybersecurity.

They are also encouraged to diversify their focus across various dimensions, including markets, partners, supply chains, products, and services.

The diversification should extend to seeking viable funding sources for initiatives related to green transitions, circular economy practices, and participation in the carbon credit market.

The World Bank has recently projected Việt Nam’s GDP growth for 2024 to be 6.5 per cent, an increase from the 5.5 per cent forecast made in April.

The forum titled “Driving Forces for Businesses in a New Context,” organised by Người Lao Động (Labourer) newspaper, aims to discuss supportive policies for businesses as they navigate the ongoing tumultuous period. — VNS