HÀ NỘI — Vietnamese stocks are expected to rise further with the benchmark VN-Index forecast to surpass its all-time peak of 1,170 in 2007 on rising investor confidence in the market outlook, analysts say.

The benchmark VN-Index gained 2.49 per cent to close at 1,102.85 points on Friday, after dropping 1.02 per cent to finish at 1,076.03 points on Thursday.

The southern market index gained 4.07 per cent in three sessions last week.

The HNX Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange rose 1.24 per cent to end at 126.24 points, recovering from its one-day decline of 0.92 per cent to end the session at 124.70 points on Thursday.

The two stock indices witnessed a weekly rise of 4.07 per cent and 1.55 per cent, respectively, as money flowed into large-cap stocks, driving up the market.

An average of more than 239.82 million shares were traded in each session, worth VND6.8 trillion (US$298.5 million).

The UPCOM Index on the Unlisted Public Company Market (UPCoM) inched up 0.43 per cent to finish at 59.56 points. It lost 0.15 per cent to finish at 59.28 points in the previous session.

Furthermore, the unlisted market index gained 1.81 per cent after the three trading sessions of the week.

According to Dương Văn Chung, head of MB Securities Co’s northern branch, during the beginning of February, the market fell sharply—the VN-Index was dragged down below 1,000 points.

“I recommended investors to purchase more stocks as after Tết, the market will likely to turn upward and could possibly exceed its peak of 1,130 points set before the Tet holiday, and even surpassing the all-time peak of 1,179 in 2007,” Chung told tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn.

“With the growing momentum during the last week, I expect that the VN-Index’s recent peak of 1,130 points will be broken in the next week, led by the strong cash flow poured into financial-banking stocks,” he added.

Vietcombank shares (VCB) have increased by 23.2 per cent since the beginning of the year. The figures for Bank for Investment and Development of Viet Nam (BID) and Vietinbank (CTG) are 44.3 per cent and 18.1 per cent, respectively.

According to Chung, Việt Nam’s stock market is a small frontier market, which is strongly affected by the fluctuations of the world stock market.

“The market has much potential. I think in 2018, the market will experience highly volatile trading condition as investors will be trading more actively than before instead of buying and holding stocks for a long-term,” Chung said.

In March, the VN-Index may move up to reach 1,182 points to a maximum of 1,225 points, Chung forecast.

Hoàng Thạch Lân, head of individual client analysis at Việt Dragon Securities Company, said the VN-Index is expected to continue to rise next week, due to investors increasing their stock proportion in the pillar stocks, supporting the overall market.

“In theory, the VN-Index will inevitably exceed its all-time peak of 1,170. With the current uptrend, perhaps the Index will surpass that record next week,” Lân said.

“However, in terms of technical analysis, my indicators showed that there are more risks than a few months ago. In the worst-case scenario, the Index would continue to increase more to surpass the peak and then suddenly decline deeply for a long period,” Lân added.

He said the uptrend of Petroleum stocks is backed by oil price rebounded.

Brent crude price closed Friday at $67.31, up 0.6 per cent from last year’s ending figure and up 50.1 per cent from last year’s lowest hit on June 21.

PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation shares (GAS) have climbed 8.8 per cent since the beginning of this year.

According to Bảo Việt Securities Company (BVSC), large-cap stocks will likely extend gains early next week, supporting the overall market. However, the market may experience some volatility when VnIndex approaches the old peak.

Meanwhile the BIDV Securities Co (BSC) said in its report that investors may consider increasing their stock proportion in the pillar stocks of the market, because these stocks are attracting major cash flows in the market. — VNS