A view of the Hồng River in Hà Nội. The Hồng River Delta is projected to require the largest volume of water, approximately 5.63 billion cubic metres. VNA/VNS Photo

HÀ NỘI — The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment has urged localities in the Hồng-Thái Bình rivers basin to develop plans for the extraction and use of water resources based on the principles of conservation, efficiency and waste prevention.

This recommendation follows the ministry's release of the first-ever water resource scenario for the Hồng-Thái Bình rivers basin earlier this week. The scenario predicts reduced rainfall and river flows during the dry season from December 2024 to June 2025, while water demand of major sectors is expected to remain high, increasing the risk of water shortages in several areas within the basin.

Reduced river flow forecast

Speaking about the water resource scenario, Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and Environment Lê Minh Ngân noted that temperatures from December 2024 to May 2025 are expected to be near the long-term average, with a rise of about 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for the remaining months.

Heatwaves are likely to occur in northwest provinces from late February to early March and intensify from March to April 2025 in both the northwest and northeast regions, continuing with greater intensity and frequency during the peak summer months.

In these climatic conditions, total rainfall in the Đà, Lô-Gâm, Thao, Cầu-Thương rivers and the Hồng River Delta is expected to range from 10-35 mm in December 2024, 5-10 mm below the long-term average. Rainfall in the first two months of 2025 is forecast at 15-40 mm, roughly average for the period.

Dry-season river flows in the Đà, Thao and Cầu rivers are predicted to decrease by 10-40 per cent between late November 2024 and January 2025.

From February to May 2025, flows are expected to continue to drop 10-30 per cent below the long-term average, comparable to the 2020-2024 period.

Workers from the Điện Biên Irrigation Management Company in the northern mountainous province of Điện Biên inspect water levels at Hồng Sạt Reservoir. VNA/VNS Photo Xuân Tư

The Lô River is expected to experience similar flow reductions of 10-40 per cent from late November 2024 to January 2025 and 10-30 per cent from February to May 2025. On the Hồng River, flows at the Sơn Tây hydrological station in Hà Nội are projected to be 10-25 per cent lower than the long-term average during February-May 2025.

Meanwhile, total water demand for the Hồng-Thái Bình rivers basin between December 2024 and June 2025 is projected at 9.71 billion cubic metres. Of that, groundwater is expected to account for 7.2 per cent of this demand, with surface water making up 92.8 per cent.

The Đà River basin is expected to require 0.81 billion cubic metres of water. The Thao River basin will need approximately 0.67 billion cubic metres, the Cầu-Thương will require 1.58 billion cubic metres, and the Lô-Gấm basin will require 1.02 billion cubic metres. The Hồng River Delta will require the largest volume of water, approximately 5.63 billion cubic metres.

Risks of water shortages

The ministry highlighted the need for careful water resource planning and management to address these challenges and avert potential shortages across the basin.

According to the ministry, from December 2024 to June 2025, the overall water resources from reservoirs, rivers and sub-basins are expected to suffice to meet domestic and economic demands. However, water availability in the basin during the forecast period is not abundant, posing risks of water shortages if resources are not used efficiently.

Some sub-regions, sub-basins and districts within provinces such as Điện Biên, Lai Châu, Phú Thọ, Hà Giang, Yên Bái, Tuyên Quang and Bắc Giang face potential localised water shortages.

An irrigation reservoir in the central highland province of Đắk Lắk dries up due to severe drought on April 9, 2024. VNA/VNS Photo Tuấn Anh

During the irrigation drainage period between January and February 2025 and the post-drainage period between March and June 2025, water released from the seven hydropower reservoirs in the basin may be insufficient to meet downstream demands if high volumes are discharged for irrigation and increased water use for power generation due to heatwaves.

The primary causes of these potential shortages, according to the ministry, include insufficient rainfall, reduced river flows, limited capacity of water extraction facilities, and a lack of integrated, efficient irrigation systems. Water scarcity in these areas would primarily impact agricultural production and local livelihoods.

Water management plans

To mitigate the risk of water shortages, particularly ensuring adequate water supply for domestic use in the Hồng-Thái Bình rivers basin, the ministry recommended that the ministries of agriculture and rural development, industry and trade, construction, and provincial authorities within the basin develop water resource utilisation plans.

These plans should align with the normal water usage needs of each sector, region and locality.

Key principles for these plans include avoiding waste and inefficiencies while preparing for potential droughts and shortages during the late dry season months, balancing water use for multiple purposes, including food security, energy security and the safety of the electrical grid, preparing for widespread heatwaves from April to June 2025, and mitigating risks of power shortages due to challenges in thermal power plant operations.

The ministry also stresses the need to enhance water supply systems in the Hồng River Delta, improve water use efficiency, minimise losses and waste and invest in infrastructure for water storage. Planning should be aligned with the water resource scenario to address shortages in areas with inadequate infrastructure for water regulation and storage.

To ensure a continuous, stable and safe clean water supply for residents, the ministry urged provincial and municipal authorities to expedite the construction and operation of surface water plants and water distribution networks. Authorities should also review and report to the Prime Minister on necessary adjustments to the scale, capacity and timeline of water plant development plans if delays threaten stable water supply for residents. — VNS