A newborn in HCM City. Việt Nam’s largest city is facing an ageing population issue caused by a persistently low birth rate. — VNS Photo Bồ Xuân Hiệp

HCM CITY — HCM City is facing the rapid ageing issue, driven by persistently low birth rates amid its golden demographic period, in which over 74 per cent of the population is of working age.

Currently, more than 1.3 million residents, or approximately 12.5 per cent, are aged 60 or older, a figure projected to rise to 20 per cent by 2030.

This demographic shift presents challenges across various sectors, including economic growth, labour markets, social security, infrastructure, and healthcare services, while increasing financial pressures on the working-age population.

A “golden population structure” occurs when the working-age group (ages 15-64) outnumbers dependents (those under 15 and over 64).

Currently, the city has a working-age population of 74.2 per cent, with individuals under 15 at 18.2 per cent and seniors aged 65 and older at 7.6 per cent.

According to Tăng Chí Thượng, director of the city Department of Health, this demographic period offers both opportunities and challenges for economic development.

However, health officials express concern over the low birth rate, projected to be 1.39 children per woman in 2024.

To counter the effects of an ageing population, the city must adopt effective measures to encourage family growth.

With a population exceeding 9.5 million, which is more than 2.7 times its size 50 years ago, the demographic landscape is evolving rapidly.

The city is implementing social welfare policies to support families, including assistance with education, healthcare, housing, and recreational activities, in hopes of encouraging young couples to have children.

The city’s healthcare sector plans to collaborate with local government to execute the Vietnamese Population Strategy by 2030, which aims to manage low birth rates, address gender imbalances, and enhance overall population quality.

Since 2008, initiatives such as pre-marital health consultations and prenatal screenings have been introduced to enhance public health.

Additionally, the city began offering free annual health check-ups for seniors starting in 2024.

Despite these challenges, the city has successfully managed the gender ratio at birth, maintaining a balance of approximately 106 to 107 boys for every 100 girls.

Life expectancy of Vietnamese has risen from 66 years in 1979 to 76.6 years in 2024, surpassing the national average of 74.7 years.

Vietnamese women have the second-longest lifespan in Southeast Asia at 77.3 years, while men rank fifth at 72.3 years.

Despite relatively long average lifespans, Vietnamese citizens spend approximately 14 years managing chronic illnesses.

The elderly frequently face chronic conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, and dementia, leading to rising healthcare expenditures that strain both the national budget and insurance systems.

Việt Nam is rapidly becoming one of Asia’s fastest-aging nations, with approximately 16.1 million residents aged 60 and above, representing about 16 per cent of the population.

A population is considered “aged” when 14 per cent of its population is 65 years old or older, according to the Ministry of Health.

The regions experiencing the fastest ageing include the Red River Delta and Mekong Delta, with ageing rates, which is the ratio of the population aged 60 and above to those under 15 years old, reaching 76.8 per cent and 70.6 per cent, respectively.

In contrast, the Central Highlands has the lowest rate at 37 per cent. — VNS