- Japan and UK are the only two countriesforecasted to see trade growth among countries surveyed by the DHL Global TradeBarometer
- Ocean trade spurred by imports of Basic RawMaterials and exports of Industrial Raw Materials contribute to positiveoutlook for Japan's economy
- Despite contraction in certain sectors, trade ispositively influenced by investments in Tokyo 2020 Games and trade deals withemerging markets
TOKYO, JAPAN - Media OutReach - 3 October 2019 - Robustocean imports of Basic Raw Materials and exports of Industrial Raw Materialswill be the main contributor to positive trade growth in Japan over the next twomonths, according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL,the world's leading logistics company.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an earlyindicator of global trade developments calculated using artificial intelligenceand big data analytics, shows that Japan's trade growth for the periodSeptember to November 2019 will increase by three points to 53, a positive signof the country's economic health. Along with the UK, it has the highest growthprospects of all seven countries surveyed due to its solid ocean trade data,which more than makes up for a mildly weakening outlook for air trade.
"Japan isn't completely unscathedby the current uncertainties plaguing the global economy and trade," saidCharles Kaufmann, CEO North Asia South Pacific, DHL Global Forwarding and President/RepresentativeDirector, DHL Global Forwarding Japan K.K. "Nevertheless, encouraging figures reveal a solid ocean trade outlook thatalludes to the country's ongoing progress, especially in infrastructure investments related to the upcoming Tokyo2020 Olympic Games that's evident from the robust trade of Basic andIndustrial Raw Materials. The government is also actively fostering trade relationsincluding the recent trade dealwith the US, and engagements such as the TokyoInternational Conference on African Development. It's a sure sign ofJapan's global influence as a mature economy, one with world-class strengths intried-and-tested industries like automotive, manufacturing, machinery andtechnology."
Stagnatingworld trade outlook
The Barometer's results also suggest that worldtrade remains at a crossroads and will further lose momentum over the next twomonths, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous quarter. The currentdecline is triggered solely by a drop in air trade, with global ocean tradeoutlook remaining stable. All seven nations surveyed reveal indexes below 50points except for Japan and the UK, where the Barometer forecasts a positivegrowth momentum for the two economies at 53 points respectively. In the GlobalTrade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth,while values below 50 indicate contraction.
"Worldwide, trade conflicts continue to smoulder and geopoliticaltensions are causing uncertainty. Againstthis backdrop, global trade continues to develop surprisingly well. Althoughthe DHL Global Trade Barometer has further decreased -- with an index value of47 points --world trade is still closer to staying at its high level," TimScharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said. "This strengthens ourconviction that globalization will go on and that logistics will remain its keyenabler in the future."
Impact of US-Chinese tensions reflected in theirown results
Thetrade conflict between China and the US continues to simmer, resulting in anoverall subdued trade mood, with US and China accounting for the most negativetrade outlooks in September. It is expected that US trade will shrink further,remaining in negative territory with 45 points, despite having climbed onepoint since June. Both air and ocean trade prospects for US remain almostunchanged compared to the previous update. The DHL Global Trade Barometer forecastsa moderate decline for Chinese trade by four points to 45. The main driverof this development is the weak performance of Chinese air trade which hasdropped significantly by eight points to 43 over the past three months.
About theGlobal Trade Barometer
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global TradeBarometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state andfuture development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logisticsdata that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence.
The indicator is published four times a year andthe next release date is scheduled for November 2019. For more information onthe DHL Global Trade Barometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/en/media-relations/specials/global-trade-barometer.html.
You can find the press release for download aswell as further information on dpdhl.com/pressreleases
DHL – The logistics company for the world
DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL familyof divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging fromnational and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillmentsolutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrialsupply chain management. With about 380,000 employees in more than 220countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businessessecurely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutionsfor growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences andhealthcare, energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporateresponsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL isdecisively positioned as "The logistics company for the world".
DHL ispart of Deutsche Post DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of more than 61billion euros in 2018.