- India continues to lose momentum and falls belowthe no-growth threshold for the first time since 2013
- Exports of Temperature or Climate ControlledGoods, Chemicals & Products, Consumer Fashion Goods and Basic Raw Materialsexpected to contribute most
MUMBAI, INDIA - Media OutReach - 3 October 2019 - India'space of growth looks set to be kept afloat by robust ocean exports despite an overalldecline amidst international trade slowdown, according to data from the DHLGlobal Trade Barometer released by DHL, the world's leading logistics company.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an earlyindicator of global trade developments calculated using artificial intelligenceand big data analytics, revealed that India's trade growth outlook will bedriven primarily by healthy ocean exports of Temperature or Climate ControlledGoods, Chemicals & Products, Consumer Fashion Goods and Basic Raw Materials.In spite of this, September's ocean trade index fell nine points to 50 with airtrade registering a three-point climb to an index value of 48. India's overalltrade outlook index value of 49 will place the country in negative territoryfor the first time in six years.
"The decline in India's trade outlook fromprevious quarters suggests it is certainly not immune to current globaleconomic headwinds. However, with ocean exports remaining robust for sectorslike Consumer Fashion Goods and Basic Raw Materials, it's a positive sign thatexport of manufacturing goods such as textiles, fabrics and the like remainstalwart sectors that continue to uphold the country's economy," said NikiFrank, CEO, Global Forwarding India. "Equally, local and foreign investors havecause for optimism with the government unveiling a $20 billion package to slashcorporate taxes from 35% down to 25%, includinga proposedcompetitive 15% rate for new manufacturing units in its efforts to reverseslowing growth and attract larger investors from abroad."
Forecastfor India consistent with stagnating world trade outlook
The Barometer's results also suggest that worldtrade remains at a crossroads and will further lose momentum over the next twomonths, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous quarter. The currentdecline is triggered solely by a drop in air trade, with global ocean tradeoutlook remaining stable. All seven nations surveyed reveal indexes below 50points except for Japan and the UK, where the Barometer forecasts a positivegrowth momentum for the two economies at 53 points each. In the Global TradeBarometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, whilevalues below 50 indicate contraction.
"Worldwide, trade conflicts continue to smoulder and geopoliticaltensions are causing uncertainty. Againstthis backdrop, global trade continues to develop surprisingly well. Althoughthe DHL Global Trade Barometer has further decreased -- with an index value of47 points --world trade is still closer to staying at its high level," TimScharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said. "This strengthens ourconviction that globalization will go on and that logistics will remain its keyenabler in the future."
Impact of US-Chinese tensions reflected in theirown results
Thetrade conflict between China and the US continues to simmer, resulting in anoverall subdued trade mood, with US and China accounting for the most negativetrade outlooks in September. It is expected that US trade will shrink further,remaining in negative territory with 45 points, despite having climbed onepoint since June. Both air and ocean trade prospects for US remain almostunchanged compared to the previous update. The DHL Global Trade Barometer forecastsa moderate decline for Chinese trade by four points to 45. The main driverof this development is the weak performance of Chinese air trade, which hasdropped significantly by eight points to 43 over the past three months.
About theGlobal Trade Barometer
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global TradeBarometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state andfuture development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logisticsdata that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence.
The indicator is published four times a year andthe next release date is scheduled for November 2019. For more information onthe DHL Global Trade Barometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/en/media-relations/specials/global-trade-barometer.html.
You can find the press release for download aswell as further information on dpdhl.com/pressreleases
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