Customers conduct transactions at an SSI Securities office in Hà Nội. — Photo courtesy of SSI

HÀ NỘI — Entering the new trading week, Việt Nam’s stock market is facing both renewed optimism and lingering risks from global economic and geopolitical tensions.

While analysts foresee the potential for further recovery, they advise investors to exercise caution and focus on stocks with solid fundamentals and lower sensitivity to external shocks.

Đinh Quang Hinh, head of Macro-economics and Market Strategy at VNDIRECT Securities, said the market is currently in the process of seeking equilibrium after a volatile period. He identified the 1,240–1,260 range as a key resistance zone that could test the strength of the current rebound.

“Investors should not rush," Hinh advised.

"Preference should be given to sectors less affected by trade tensions and those benefiting from fiscal and monetary support such as banking, residential real estate, retail, power and public investment.”

He also noted several factors that could underpin the market in the near term, including the VN-Index’s attractive valuation (P/E below 12), potentially positive Q1 2025 earnings reports, the rollout of the long-awaited KRX trading system, and stable credit growth.

Particularly encouraging is the State Bank of Việt Nam’s recently announced VNĐ500 trillion credit package aimed at supporting infrastructure and digital investment.

Phan Tấn Nhật, head of Analysis at the Saigon–Hanoi Securities (SHS), said the VN-Index has short-term support in the 1,200–1,210 zone, while strong resistance is seen at 1,250 points.

Given the sharp recovery and rising liquidity following the tariff-related sell-off, Nhật suggested this could be an opportunity to rebalance portfolios towards leading companies with long-term growth potential.

However, he also cautioned against complacency, citing the unresolved nature of the ongoing US–China trade tensions. Although the US has temporarily suspended tariff measures on over 75 countries including Việt Nam, negotiations remain fragile.

“The risks are still present, and the market needs time to fully digest these developments,” he said.

The domestic market had a roller-coaster week, beginning with two sessions of steep declines as trade war fears intensified. The VN-Index dipped as low as 1,073.6 points before staging a strong rebound, driven by the news that the US would delay tariff enforcement.

By the end of the week, the VN-Index had gained 0.97 per cent to close at 1,222.46, firmly above the key psychological threshold of 1,200 points.

The VN30 Index, which tracks the 30 largest listed companies, rose by a more substantial 2.3 per cent to 1,309.94, signalling strong support from large-cap stocks.

Thursday’s session was particularly noteworthy, with the index surging more than 70 points as investor sentiment turned bullish and numerous sectors saw limit-up gains.

Still, analysts agree that the market requires more time to establish a clearer medium-term trend.

In terms of capital flows, foreign investors continued to offload holdings, posting a net sell value of VNĐ1.3 trillion (US$50.5 million) on the HoSE.

The outflows were concentrated in export-driven and FDI-related sectors such as industrial parks, seafood, textiles, logistics, agriculture and oil and gas all of which are more vulnerable to tariff risks.

In contrast, sectors including technology, real estate, banking and construction showed stronger recoveries, suggesting a partial shift in investor positioning towards domestic demand and infrastructure-driven growth. — VNS