A newborn at a hospital in HCM City. The city continues to report the lowest birth rate in the country, despite a slight increase following administrative mergers. — VNS Photo Bồ Xuân Hiệp

HCM CITY — HCM City continues to record the lowest birth rate in Việt Nam, despite a slight increase following its recent administrative merger with Bình Dương and Bà Rịa–Vũng Tàu provinces, raising concerns over its long-term economic and social sustainability.

The city’s total fertility rate (TFR) currently stands at 1.43 children per woman, up marginally from 1.39 before the merger. However, it remains well below the national replacement rate of 2.0 to 2.1, according to the HCM City Population and Family Planning Department.

Speaking recently on the occasion of World Population Day (July 11), Phạm Chánh Trung, director of the department, said that while the city benefited from a “demographic dividend” (with 70.6 per cent of its population of 14 million in working age), it was also rapidly entering a period of population ageing, with 10.5 per cent aged over 60.

Despite nationwide efforts to boost fertility, HCM City has maintained the lowest birth rate in the country for years.

Nationally, Việt Nam’s average TFR is 1.91, placing it among the five lowest in Southeast Asia. Only Brunei (1.8), Malaysia (1.6), Thailand and Singapore (1.0) report lower figures, according to the General Statistics Office.

Demographers have warned a prolonged decline in fertility may lead to a shrinking labour force, undermining innovation and productivity. Young workers are typically more adaptable and central to economic growth, especially in a globally integrated economy.

The falling birth rate also accelerates population ageing, raising the risk of an inverted population pyramid, where retirees and elderly dependents outnumber the working-age population.

This trend could strain public pensions, healthcare systems, and social welfare funds as fewer contributors support more beneficiaries.

City’s response

To address its persistently low birth rate, HCM City has implemented a broad set of policy measures aimed at encouraging childbirth. These include financial incentives and expanded maternal and child healthcare services.

A long-term public health roadmap through 2030 has been approved, focusing on reversing fertility decline while upholding individual reproductive rights.

Key initiatives under the roadmap include subsidised pre-marital health screenings, pre-pregnancy vaccinations for women, annual check-ups for schoolchildren, oral health programmes for primary students, and free HPV vaccinations for youth aged 11–18.

A resolution passed in late 2023 offers a cash incentive of VNĐ3 million (US$115) to women who have two children before the age of 35.

Additional measures include free tuition for all students across education levels and further investment in maternal and child healthcare.

To shift public attitudes, city authorities are also intensifying communication campaigns encouraging couples to have two children.

These campaigns span multiple platforms, including television and radio advertisements, cinema trailers, music, LED displays in shopping malls, and digital screens in apartment elevators, buses, and health clinics.

The city also deploys a network of 19,392 population collaborators, who help manage demographic data and carry out community outreach.

This year’s World Population Day, themed “Reproductive Rights in a Changing World,” underscores the need to balance personal choice with broader demographic objectives.

“Our goal is not to control fertility,” said department director Phạm Chánh Trung, “but to provide people with the tools and support to make informed reproductive choices.”— VNS