Interest rate forecast to continually decline at year-end

November 08, 2021 - 08:40
Deposit interest rates at commercial banks will continue to decrease and remain at low levels in the coming months, analysts forecast.


A customer deposits at a LienVietPostBank office in Hà Nội. — VNA/VNS Photo 

HÀ NỘI — Deposit interest rates at commercial banks will continue to decrease and remain at low levels in the coming months, analysts forecast.

In a recent report, Bảo Việt Securities Company (BVSC)’s analysts said the average deposit interest rate continued to inch down last month for both 6-month and 12-month terms.

Accordingly, the average rates for 6-month and 12-month deposits in October decreased by 0.01 and 0.06 percentage points to 4.70 per cent and 5.50 per cent against the previous month, respectively.

Compared with the same period last year, the average interest rates of 6-month and 12-month deposits declined by about 0.5 percentage points.

According to BVSC’s analysts, Việt Nam's consumer price index in the first ten months of 2021 increased by only 1.81 per cent, the lowest since 2016. They forecast the index would increase by only around 2.5-3 per cent for the whole of 2021.

“The low inflation rate would create favourable conditions for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to continually maintain a loose monetary policy with an aim to stimulate the economy for recovery in the last months of the year. Deposit interest rates therefore would continue to remain low in the coming months,” they said.

In the context that deposit interest rates hit the lowest levels, the deposit growth at banks is slowing down.

According to the SBV, by the end of August, deposits at banks increased by only 4.17 per cent compared to the beginning of the year to more than VNĐ10.4 quadrillion, the lowest growth rate since 2012.

Currently, four State-owned banks Vietcombank, VietinBank, Agribank and BIDV and some large-sized banks such as Techcombank and Military Bank are listing the lowest interest rates in the banking system.

The highest savings interest rate for 12-month deposits at Vietcombank, Agribank and BIDV is 5.5 per cent per year while VietinBank is capping the rate at 5.6 per cent per year.

Previously, banks often raced to increase savings interest rates and launched promotional programmes to attract depositors in the last months of a year to meet rising capital demands in the peak business season ahead of the country’s biggest holiday Tết (Lunar New Year). However, due to the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the savings interest rates have been dropping and remained stable since last year.

According to the SBV, though banks cut lending interest rates significantly this year, credit increased 7.42 per cent in the first nine months of this year. The credit growth is expected to reach 12 per cent by the end of the year. — VNS