- Trade in Personal and Household Goods set to
grow sizably in Q3 2019
- Imports of Basic Raw Materials bolster both air
and ocean trade, partially offsetting weakness in other sectors
SEOUL, KOREA - Media OutReach - 9 July
2019 - South Korea's trade outlook retains
some cause for optimism despite continued deceleration both air and ocean trade,
according to latest data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early
indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence
and Big Data, suggests that trade in Personal and Household Goods will experience
significant growth between June and August 2019, rising 15 points to an index
However, most other sectors continue to exhibit signs of ongoing trade
weakness, with marked declines in both air and ocean exports expected, thus
pulling down the overall trade outlook by 3 to an index value of 46.
South Korea's air imports, on the other hand, look set to grow modestly thanks
to rising trade in sectors like Temperature or Climate Controlled goods and
Basic Raw Materials -- the latter of which is predicted to make positive
contributions to the country's ocean imports.
"South Korea's high reliance on exports has
rendered its economy particularly susceptible to the global downturn in trade,
particularly as its key industries like semiconductors
and technology have been acutely affected by recent trade disputes," said SP
Song, Managing Director, DHL Global Forwarding Korea. "The evolving nature of
global trade disputes will likely dictate the course of South Korea's own trade
growth in the coming months, with domestic demand aided by government stimulus
measures and broader overseas diversification likely to yield opportunities for
South Korean businesses looking for increasingly rare growth at home."
Latest results show negative effects of trade wars
For the first time in six quarters, the
Barometer's results predict a slight decline in global trade between June and
August 2019, with its overall world trade outlook dropping to just 48 index
Commenting on the latest forecast, Tim Scharwath,
CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said, "Amidst rising US-Chinese
tensions, the slightly negative outlook for global trade for the third quarter
of 2019 does not come as a complete surprise. The latest GTB clearly
illustrates why trade disputes create no winners. Nevertheless, some major
economies such as Germany continue to record positive trade growth. And from a
year-to-date perspective, world trade growth has still been positive. Hence, we
remain confident in our initial prognosis that 2019 will be a year with overall
positive, but slower trade growth."
The continued trade disputes between the US and
China have contributed significantly to that decline, with both countries
experiencing the largest declines in their trade outlook (-11 points for the
US, -7 points for China) out of all countries surveyed by the Barometer. In the
Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive
growth, while values below 50 indicate contraction.
Scharwath said, "The GTB is a useful tool for us
to anticipate economic developments at an early stage. We are well-prepared to
tackle the forecasted developments. Our divisional structure and portfolio as
well as our worldwide activities allow us to balance economic effects within
the company and remain resilient to changes in global trade dynamics."
Click here for more
information on the outlook for air freight and ocean freight or the key sectors
in South Korea.
Note: In the Global
Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth,
while values below 50 indicate contraction.
About the Global Trade Barometer
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade
Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade.
It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help
of artificial intelligence. The indicator is published four times a year and
the next release date is scheduled for September 2019.
information on the DHL Global Trade Barometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/gtb.
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