El Nino forecast to cause complicated weather patterns this year: experts

July 27, 2023 - 08:38
The El Nino phenomenon is projected to grow in strength through the end of this year, and is likely to persist into the following year.
El Nino will make hot and dry conditions worse. Photo https://phongchongthientai.mard.gov.vn/

HÀ NỘI – Experts have issued warnings about an increasingly complex storm season this year, in conjunction with the onset of a moderate to robust El Nino weather phenomenon.

Nguyễn Đức Hòa, deputy head of the Climate Forecasting Department at the National Centre for Hydrometeorological Forecasting, said the El Nino phenomenon has been in effect since the start of June. It is projected to grow in strength through the end of this year, and is likely to persist into the following year.

The strongest period of El Nino will occur from November 2023 to January 2024, said Hoà.

This year, it is forecast that there will be between 9 and 11 storms or tropical depressions in the East Sea, of which 4-5 storms will affect Việt Nam’s mainland. Total rainfall will be at similar or lower levels compared to previous years.

Although record downpours are less likely, localised heavy rainfall will still occur frequently.

The dry season in the Mekong Delta this year is forecast to be equivalent to the multi-year average of the period 2012-2021 and lower than that of 2022.

In May, sea surface temperatures were above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific area. Convection activity was largely inactive throughout April and changed to quasi-normal winds, while easterly winds in the lower troposphere over the central equatorial Pacific also weakened to almost normal.

Ocean and atmospheric patterns showed that El Nino is in effect, said Hoà.

"Based on climate statistics, there may not be many storms and tropical depressions in Việt Nam, but the developments are complicated and unpredictable," he said.

“El Nino often causes a shortage of rainfall in most regions of the country, mostly in the North Central region,” he said.

“Therefore, there is a high risk of local or large-scale drought in places where there is a high demand for water for production and daily life,” he added.

Since the beginning of the year, Việt Nam has been affected by 19 out of 22 types of natural disasters, including 37 heavy rains, floods and flashfloods; 158 thunderstorms; 12 incidences of strong winds and large waves; 201 earthquakes and 323 landslides and high tides.

The natural disasters across the country caused 52 deaths and people missing.

The National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting will provide warnings for dangerous phenomena such as storms, tropical depressions, heavy rains, heavy floods, flash floods, high tides and high waves.

According to the centre, there is a new storm named Doksuri with a very wide impact and very strong intensity, east of the Philippines.

Although this storm is likely to make landfall in China’s Taiwan, it indirectly activates the southwest monsoon in the South region.

Due to the impact of Doksuri typhoon, heavy rain in the Central Highlands and the South regions, and thunderstorms in the area from Thừa Thiên-Huế to Bình Thuận provinces are likely to last for 2-3 days.

After this, from now until the end of August, the East Sea may have one or two new storms.

According to the Japanese meteorological agency, Doksuri will strengthen into a super typhoon before entering the North East Sea and making landfall in China's Fujian and Guangdong provinces around July 28.

The centre said that from now to the first half of August, the tropical convergence band will continue to operate and potentially form tropical depressions and storms over the East Sea. VNS